POLITICO Playbook: What Democrats won’t say out loud

WHAT ELECTED DEMOCRATS THINK, BUT WON’T SAY OUT LOUD: In case you are in single digits in the polls after this many debates, this many months in the public view and this many cable hits, you are usually not going to be the nominee and you must get out of the presidential race. Don’t complain concerning the course of, however fairly acknowledge the truth that folks -- the ones who're polled -- don’t actually assume you have to be the nominee.

WHY THE MARGIN TONIGHT MATTERS: If BERNIE SANDERS wins convincingly tonight and is pulling in big money online, and JOE BIDEN does worse than expected, establishment Dems are going to freak out.

BERNIE IS THE SLIGHT IOWA FAVORITE … NYT’S ALEX BURNS: “The cancellation on Saturday night time of a last pre-caucus ballot from The Des Moines Register and CNN, due to a survey error, annoyed campaigns that had come to rely upon the poll as a dependable omen of caucus outcomes. But strategists for several campaigns stated there was a deepening sense that Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont had an advantage forward of Monday’s contest.

“Public polling has shown Mr. Sanders gaining ground, and he has outspent all the other main Democrats on television by a large margin in current weeks. A New York Occasions polling common found Mr. Sanders and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. tied for first place within the state, with every of them accumulating help from about 22 % of probably caucusgoers. Trailing them in third and fourth place have been former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.” NYT

WAPO, by way of Chelsea Janes, Annie Linskey, Sean Sullivan and Cleve Wootson, with a Coralville dateline: “As they made closing arguments to Iowa’s voters, Biden and Buttigieg touted their means to win voters in Republican-leaning districts as a signal they might have broader attraction in the common election. Buttigieg underscored that by citing at considered one of his last events his favorite Beatles track: ‘Come Together.’

“Sanders, whose brand of politics can border on uncompromising, made an overt attraction on Sunday to those who disagree with him and targeted on probably the most unifying pressure coursing via the social gathering: opposition to Trump. ‘No matter what your politics could also be,’ he informed a crowd in Cedar Rapids, ‘I feel we all perceive that that isn't the sort of one that ought to remain within the White Home.’”

HOLLY OTTERBEIN and ALEX THOMPSON in Cedar Rapids: “Sanders, Warren go separate ways in closing pitches”

-- THE KNIVES ARE COMING OUT FOR BERNIE … “Sanders as soon as likened poor whites to blacks beneath Apartheid,” by Marc Caputo and Laura Barrón-López: POLITICO

NATASHA KORECKI in Des Moines: “Kerry unloads on NBC after report he was overheard talking about 2020 bid”: “John Kerry is supposed to be stumping for Joe Biden. But the former Secretary of State triggered a kerfuffle Sunday after NBC News revealed a narrative detailing a telephone call Kerry had in a lodge foyer here. Kerry was overheard by an NBC analyst apparently strategizing how he might enter the presidential race now that there was ‘the risk of Bernie Sanders taking down the Democratic Social gathering — down entire.’

“Within the dialog, which passed off in the Renaissance Savery lodge downtown, Kerry reportedly stated, ‘perhaps I am f---ing deluding myself right here,’ then went on to elucidate the steps he must take if he jumped into the fray, including hitting up wealthy donors who may be frightened by Sanders’ rise.

“Kerry, the 2004 Democratic nominee for president and former secretary of State, emphatically denied he had renewed White House aspirations, tweeting ‘any report otherwise is f---ing (or categorically) false.’ He later deleted the tweet with the expletive and re-posted a full statement adamantly denying he had any interest in operating and [saying] that he was absolutely behind Biden’s candidacy.

“‘As I informed the reporter, I am absolutely not operating for president. Any report in any other case is categorically false. I’ve been proud to campaign with my good good friend Joe Biden, who is going to win the nomination, beat Trump, and make an impressive president,’ he wrote.” POLITICO

DES MOINES REGISTER: “Pete Buttigieg asks likely caucusgoers: ‘Are you ready to make history one more time?'” by Barbara Rodriguez

ELENA SCHNEIDER: “Pete Buttigieg’s Iowa delegate play”

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE interviewed BIDEN on Sunday night time in Iowa, and it will air this morning on NBC’s “As we speak” show.

RYAN LIZZA’S takeaways from Iowa … TIM ALBERTA says Democrats gained’t play in Iowa within the basic.

LET’S SEE HOW THIS WORKS! … L.A. TIMES, by Melissa Gomez: “When Dean A. Genth tries to persuade fellow Iowans at a caucus on Monday to hitch him in supporting Pete Buttigieg for president, it gained’t be in his hometown on the icy Winnebago River; will probably be within the balmy desert resort of Palm Springs. …

“The celebration will broaden the attain of the caucuses to Iowa students attending schools out of state and snowbirds like Genth who flee the state’s brutal winters. The 27 caucus places out of state embrace Tucson and Gulf Breeze, a seashore resort city on Florida’s Panhandle. Also on the record are Brown University in Windfall, R.I., the College of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, and Marquette College in Milwaukee.

“As many as 140 Iowans are anticipated to attend the California websites -- one in Palm Springs and one other at Stanford College. Then there are some who can be caucusing overseas in Paris, Glasgow and Tbilisi, Georgia.” LAT

POINT OF PERSONAL PRIVILEGE … Three personal airplanes left Des Moines for Washington on Sunday night time. Two into Dulles, and one into DCA.

ALSO HAPPENING TODAY: Closing arguments in the impeachment trial.

Good Monday morning.

NEW: BEN HOWARD, deputy assistant to the president for legislative affairs and deputy director of legislative affairs at the White House, is becoming a member of the Duberstein Group as VP. He served as the highest liaison between the White House and the Home -- for both Republicans and Democrats -- and played a key position in the passage of the USMCA. Howard additionally served in a number of senior roles on Capitol Hill, including working for Home Minority Chief Kevin McCarthy and as director of flooring operations for Home Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.). …

… STEPHANIE CUTTER, founder associate of Precision and a former senior Obama adviser, will serve as the conference program government for the upcoming Democratic Nationwide Conference. In this position, she is going to assist design the conference’s program, together with determining who ought to converse and the way the DNC will construction the program.

NYT’S KATIE ROGERS in West Palm Seashore, with a Mar-a-Lago Memo on A15: “Impeachment All but Behind Him, Trump Celebrates and Keeps Focus on Bloomberg”: “Together with his acquittal all but last, the president passed from table to desk within the eating room of his golf membership on Saturday quizzing his buddies on the 2020 election, at occasions lingering lengthy sufficient to complain about his impeachment ordeal.

“‘What a waste,’ the president advised a gaggle of supporters, based on one visitor who had such an change with him. ‘What a waste of time.’ By Saturday night time, the president was in a more celebratory mood when he greeted the band of supporters gathered at Mar-a-Lago, his personal club.”

WAPO: “Republican Sen. Susan Collins finds it’s lonely in the middle,” by Griff Witte in Waterville, Maine: “Right here in Maine, where the famously unbiased Collins is locked in a decent reelection marketing campaign, the selection elicited a wintry mix of cold shoulders and icy glares.

“Republicans quietly endorsed that Collins might go no further with out inciting a insurrection from the social gathering’s Trump-loving base — maybe even a main problem. Democrats, meanwhile, heaped scorn on the senator for making gestures towards standing up to the president however not doing so when it counts.

“‘She’s like Lucy with the football and we’re Charlie Brown,’ stated Pam Cunningham, a 55-year-old Democrat who stated she voted for Collins in 2014 however intends to knock on doorways to defeat her this time. ‘What number of occasions are we going to fall for the routine?’” WaPo

WSJ EDITORIAL BOARD: “Lamar Alexander’s Finest Hour”

DEPT. OF INTRIGUE … BLAKE HOUNSHELL: “‘Truly bizarre circumstances’: Anonymous book agents refute whisper campaign against Trump official”: “The brokers for the senior Trump administration official who penned an anonymous New York Times op-ed and best-selling ebook are breaking their silence to swat down a whisper marketing campaign pinning the unnamed writings on a prime National Safety Council aide — citing ‘really bizarre circumstances’ that pressured their hand.

“‘Over the previous weeks and months, there was continuous speculation as to the id of the writer often known as Anonymous,’ Javelin co-founder Matt Latimer, who brokered the ebook deal for ‘A Warning,’ plans to say in a forthcoming statement obtained by POLITICO. ...

“In current weeks, individuals in and out of doors the White House had advised to reporters at a number of information retailers -- including POLITICO -- that the official, deputy national security adviser Victoria Coates, was Nameless. Coates had begun to worry for job, in line with several individuals close to her, despite the fact that she was just lately promoted by national security adviser Robert O'Brien. …

“‘To be very clear so there isn't any probability of any misunderstanding: Dr. Coates is just not Anonymous,’ Latimer will say.”

THE PRESIDENT’S MONDAY -- Trump may have lunch with VP Mike Pence at 12:30 p.m. in the personal dining room.

AL QAEDA claimed duty for the Navy base capturing in Florida, via NYT’s Declan Walsh in Cairo.

WHAT WOULD DRIVE TRUMP NUTS … AP/COPENHAGEN: “Teenage climate activist nominated for Nobel Peace Prize”

WUHAN CORONAVIRUS LATEST … WSJ: “Coronavirus Closes China to the World, Straining Global Economy,” by James Areddy in Shanghai: “China’s isolation amid the coronavirus outbreak, a uncommon freeze out for such an important financial middle, is rippling the world over.

“Uncertainty over the virus—which has contaminated more than 14,500 individuals— has disrupted worldwide commerce and provide chains, depressed asset prices, and compelled multinational businesses to make exhausting selections with limited info.”

-- MARKETS TUMBLING … WSJ: “Chinese language markets dropped sharply on the primary day of buying and selling after the extended Lunar New Yr break, due to heightened nervousness over the fast-spreading coronavirus and uncertainty about its influence on the worldwide financial system.

“The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.7% on Monday, shedding about 2.6 trillion yuan ($375 billion) in market worth in its steepest one-day decline since August 2015. The Shenzhen Composite dropped 8.four%.”

-- NYT: “Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say”

OUCH! ... BLOOMBERG: “China stated the U.S. ‘inappropriately overreacted’ to the deadly virus that originated there and hasn’t offered much assist to counter the outbreak, disputing the Trump administration’s declare that it provided assistance.

“‘The U.S. government hasn’t offered any substantial help to us, however it was the first to evacuate personnel from its consulate in Wuhan, the first to recommend partial withdrawal of its embassy employees, and the first to impose a journey ban on Chinese travelers,’ Chinese language overseas ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying informed reporters on Monday. The U.S. has provided its prime public well being specialists to assist China with the coronavirus outbreak however to date Beijing hasn’t responded, National Safety Adviser Robert O’Brien stated Sunday.”

WHAT TEAM CORNYN IS READING … TEXAS TRIBUNE: “With a month to go, crowded Democratic primary to challenge Cornyn remains full of uncertainty,” by Patrick Svitek: “The crowded area has long been unsettled, however any prospects of at the very least some candidates breaking away from the pack at the moment are operating into the brief timeline forward of the March three vote. A trio of polls released in current days found that enormous numbers of voters are undecided — 56% in one survey released Sunday -- while most of the 12 candidates are clustered in the single digits, barely led by MJ Hegar.”

MEDIAWATCH -- “After NPR dust-up, Pompeo defends press freedom overseas,” by AP’s Matthew Lee in Tashkent, Uzbekistan: “For the past four days, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been calling for authoritarian governments in japanese Europe and Central Asia to ease restrictions on press freedom despite criticism for his personal remedy of journalists at residence. In Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan over the weekend and again on Monday, Pompeo raised human rights issues, including freedom of the press, together with his interlocutors and denied any double-standard was at play.

“Pompeo defended his unhappiness with a National Public Radio interviewer who requested him final month concerning the ouster of the former ambassador to Ukraine. Additional, he stated his conduct, which the journalist stated included berating her with profanities as soon as the interview was over, didn't show a scarcity of respect for a free press.” AP

-- POMPEO ADDRESSED the NPR dustup in an interview in Kazakhstan: “I didn’t have a confrontational interview with an NPR reporter any more than I've confrontational interviews all the time. We take tons of and a whole lot of questions. We speak brazenly. … With respect to who travels with me, I all the time deliver a massive press contingent, but we ask for sure units of behaviors, and that’s simply telling the truth and being trustworthy. And when they’ll do this, they get to take part, and in the event that they don’t, it’s just not applicable.”

Ship tricks to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

SPOTTED: Hope Hicks moving into an SUV in Miami’s South Seashore on Sunday afternoon. … Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her family on the Tremendous Bowl in Miami. Instapic, via Christine Pelosi … Eli Miller and Jeff Miller with Brad Parscale, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump on the Super Bowl on Sunday. Pic, via NYT’s Ken Vogel

IN IOWA … Bloomberg News hosted a political pregame and Tremendous Bowl celebration at the Bloomberg Information Hub on the Des Moines Marriott Downtown. DNC’s Sam Cornale, Xochitl Hinojosa and David Bergstein briefed friends on Iowa and the battleground states. SPOTTED: Craig Gordon, Marty Schenker, Mike Schmuhl, Lis Smith, Hari Sevugan, Chris Meagher, Maureen Dowd, Joe Kahn, Sam Dolnick, Matthew Purdy, Patrick Healy, Greta Van Susteren, Hilary Rosen, Jake Tapper, Dana Bash, Tammy Haddad, Molly Ball, Karen Tumulty …

... SY Lee, TJ Ducklo, Adam Green, Michael Tatham, Italian Ambassador Armando Varricchio, John Steinman, Marc Adelman, Richard Hudock, Ned Worth, Matt Paul, Ali Zelenko, Donna Brazile, David Westin, Ben Smith, Katty Kay, Unjin Lee, Marie Harf, Jackie Alemany, Chris Stirewalt and Polson Kanneth.

TRANSITIONS -- Callie Strock can be press secretary for the House Power and Commerce Republicans. She previously was communications director for Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas). Along with SK Bowen, who’s being promoted to press secretary, she’s changing Justin Discigil, who will probably be communications director for Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas).

WEEKEND WEDDING -- Stephen Worley, senior director of communications at the Worldwide Franchise Association, and Morgan McKean, associate director of selling and communications at the Youngsters’s National Hospital Basis, acquired married Saturday at the Cathedral Basilica of the Immaculate Conception in Cellular, Ala. They met on Hinge. Pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Tim Burger, a freelance author and advisor and in addition of counsel to Seven Letter, and Kiki Burger, a communications marketing consultant at Sunshine Sachs, on Thursday welcomed Coco Grace Burger. “The ‘Rocky’ theme music was enjoying as she was born. She joins sister Dahl, 3 and 1/2 years previous, who insisted on the identify Coco from the second she discovered she was to be an enormous sister. Grace was the identify of Tim’s late paternal grandmother.” Pic

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Motion Forum, is 62. A enjoyable reality about him: “I had such an impressive social life in school that I used to be a radio DJ each Saturday night time from 9 p.m. until every time I selected to show off the transmitter.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) is 46 … Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) is 61 … Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ga.) is 5-Zero … Matt Rhoades, co-CEO of CGCN Group, is 45 (h/t Tim Griffin) … former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt is 89 … Jose Antonio Vargas, founder of Outline American, is 39 … Mieke Eoyang … Dana Thomas (h/ts Ben Chang) … Seth Lavin … Virginia Boney … former Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.) is 87 … Anne Muscarella … John Hendren … Justine Turner, director of delegate operations for Elizabeth Warren’s campaign … Romen Borsellino … Kyle Tharp, VP of comms at Acronym … James Holm, government producer of MSNBC’s “AM Pleasure,” is 48 … MaryAlice Parks of ABC Information … Adam Baltner … Mike Ryan … Todd Sadowski …

… Ben Wikler, Wisconsin Dems chairman, is 39 … Fred Hochberg, former Ex-Im Financial institution chairman … Amy Chapman … Billy Shore … Mark Webster (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) … Lisa Boothe is 35 … Latia Curry … Adriana Gindlesperger … Kathryn Lyons … Brian Braiker … POLITICO’s Claritza Jimenez and Chris Worth … Lys Mendez … Josh Lipsky, senior comms adviser on the IMF, is 34 (h/t Herbie Ziskend) … Dave Arnold, government comms director at Facebook … Sean McCormick … NPR’s Neal Carruth is 44 … Lisa Francis … Steve Weiss … Tara Kutz … Chris DeRose … Dennis Cariello … Katina Niarchos … Diana Hartstein Beinart … Zaida Ricker … Alex Boian … Clay Hollis … Amal Clooney is 42 … Lawrence Kluttz … Rebecca Mark

Src: POLITICO Playbook: What Democrats won’t say out loud
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