Buttigieg plots risky delegate strategy to survive Super Tuesday

CHARLESTON, S.C. — Pete Buttigieg is going delegate searching.

Regardless of a brutal Tremendous Tuesday map unlikely handy him any statewide wins, the previous South Bend mayor is trying to reinforce his claim as a Democratic various to Bernie Sanders by racking up delegates in individual congressional districts on Tremendous Tuesday. It’s a nationwide version of Buttigieg’s path to first place in Iowa’s state delegate race — crossing the viability threshold all over the place, pending a recount — which Buttigieg hopes to duplicate on Tuesday, when 14 states weigh in on the Democratic main, despite a splintered subject and limited assets.

Buttigieg’s campaign stated in a memo that its goal on March 3 is to “reduce” Sanders’ margins and maximize “delegate accumulation by [congressional] district, not states.” Anticipating a drawn-out main process, Buttigieg is trying to survive deeper into the calendar, making it to mid-March contests within the Midwest which may provide more opportunities for him.

Buttigieg is focusing on chosen districts in smaller media markets all through the nation to rack up delegates, from Austin, Texas and its suburbs to San Diego, northern Maine, and other locales the place Democrats flipped House seats in 2018. However it’s a dangerous technique to take care of momentum, and that danger is born out of necessity.

Buttigieg doesn’t have the cash to compete more broadly across the 14 Tremendous Tuesday states, like Bernie Sanders and especially Mike Bloomberg, nor is he anticipated to set up Tremendous Tuesday by ending strongly on Saturday in South Carolina, the place he’s struggled to realize any traction amongst voters of colour. He’s not wading into more favorable demographic territory, like Joe Biden within the different Southern states arising. And he’s not getting the good thing about home-state primaries on March 3 like Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren.

However a candidate can nonetheless “run up the rating with district-level delegates, particularly when there are nonetheless so many candidates up and kicking,” stated Ace Smith, a California-based Democratic strategist who works for Kamala Harris. Smith famous that the strategy has sustained profitable presidential campaigns in the previous: “It’s the Dukakis strategy,” he stated, referencing the 1988 Democratic main.

Buttigieg repeatedly fails to crack the top two slots in Tremendous Tuesday polling, which Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg all have achieved. “Tremendous Tuesday is a troublesome day to be campaigning whenever you don’t have your personal state up, and also you’re going everywhere in the country and you’re up towards major media markets,” stated Austin Mayor Steve Adler, a Buttigieg supporter. “It’s also a tough factor to do instantly following the four early states, the place he’s completed nicely, to date.”

The narrowed strategy also shines a shiny mild on Buttigieg’s cash crunch. The candidate spent more than he raised in January, and he urged his supporters last week to help him deliver in $13 million earlier than March 3 to stay aggressive, a plea the campaign repeated in its current memo. On Wednesday, Buttigieg’s campaign informed supporters in an e mail that it has reached about 40 % of its objective — roughly $5 million raised within the last six days.

“The problem with Buttigieg’s technique is that he doesn’t have the assets to maintain his marketing campaign,” stated Mark Longabaugh, a Democratic marketing consultant who worked on Bernie Sanders’ 2016 main bid and Andrew Yang’s now-finished presidential run. “It’s plausible for Bloomberg as a result of he has unlimited personal assets, but when Buttigieg can’t get a checkmark next to his face for a state victory on Super Tuesday, then it’s really, actually troublesome for him.”

The TV advertising that Buttigieg has been capable of afford sheds mild on his priorities. He’s airing advertisements in some main metropolitan areas, like Denver and Minneapolis, however the majority of the locations Buttigieg is concentrating on are smaller and cheaper, like Greensboro-Winston-Salem, N.C., Little Rock, Ark. and Bangor, Maine.

“Barring a number of, most of those are markets the place you possibly can really stretch a dollar and cover a couple of congressional districts at as soon as,” stated Ian Russell, a Democratic media marketing consultant.

Buttigieg’s private schedule additionally clarifies his strategy. Subsequent week, Buttigieg is planning to make stops in Dallas and Austin, Texas, two of the state’s largest media markets, which also overlap with several suburban state Senate districts where Buttigieg might run up the score. (Texas allocates delegates by legislative districts, not congressional districts.)

“The district with probably the most delegates is Austin, and it’s the only place with a Democratic district that’s dominated by Anglos, and Pete does wrestle with individuals of shade,” stated Matt Angle, a Texas-based Democratic operative who as soon as led the Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee. “Suburban Austin, suburban Dallas, even redder areas — these are places the place Mayor Pete might do better.”

The identical goes for California, where there are pockets the marketing campaign is concentrating on with TV advertisements in Santa Barbara and a rally in San Diego subsequent week.

“Pete has targeted opportunities in California,” stated Doug Herman, a California-based advisor. However he “has to avoid the California lure,” Herman continued, “the place he’s acquired a broad and out there constituency that he can’t afford to speak with, and as an alternative discover the states on the calendar that fit his profile.”

If Buttigieg is unable to succeed in the 15 % viability threshold, that may minimize him off from a sizable hoard of statewide delegates, whilst he competes in congressional districts.

“I don’t know” if he’ll attain 15 % statewide in Colorado, “but I’m going to attempt to help him do it,” stated Colorado state Rep. Jeni James Arndt, one other Buttigieg endorser. “Bernie’s doing rather well here, and Warren, too.”

One national Democratic strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns questioned why Buttigieg wasn’t staking his claim on a handful of states that played to his demographic benefit, like Utah or Virginia, with greater concentrations of moderate-leaning or college-educated voters.

“Decide a spot and check out for a win. In any other case, for those who’re enjoying just to select off delegates, then that’s what you say if you’re in hassle,” the strategist stated, granted anonymity to talk about the difficulty candidly. “If it’s a math recreation, you then’re just doing it to be at the convention, and you’re not enjoying to win.”

In its memo, Buttigieg’s campaign pledged to “limit Sanders’ delegate result in not more than 350 pledged delegates.” States on Super Tuesday account for a few third of the full delegates handed out in the Democratic presidential race.

“How many districts are each candidate hitting threshold and by what margin? To me, that’s crucial query on Super Tuesday,” stated Michael Halle, an adviser to the Buttigieg campaign. “You achieve probably the most efficiency by turning into viable.”

However even among his supporters, there’s a worry that Buttigieg’s greatest days within the presidential race already occurred.

“We’re undoubtedly nervous about him not making it to Maryland,” which votes in late April, stated Raina Chambers, a 49-year-old from Beltsville, Maryland, who noticed Buttigieg converse in Arlington, Va., on Sunday.

Her husband, Michael Chambers, added, “but if Pete doesn’t make it, I’d be effective with Michael Bloomberg, too.”

"We’ve received to be sensible,” Chambers added.

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