POLITICO Playbook: What Trump still doesn’t get about Pelosi

A QUICK REALITY CHECK … PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP tweeted this -- partially -- on Christmas: “Why should Loopy Nancy Pelosi, simply because she has a slight majority within the House, be allowed to Impeach the President of america?”

WELL, DEFINE “slight.” Speaker NANCY PELOSI started out this Congress with a 36-seat majority -- which is the fifth-largest of all majorities because the 105th Congress, in 1997-1999. PELOSI had the most important majority in the last decade -- 79 seats -- which came just after BARACK OBAMA gained the White Home, between 2009 and 2011. The smallest majority was seven seats, between 2001 and 2003. Republicans held a 19-seat majority once they impeached BILL CLINTON.

IT’S POSSIBLE that Trump has by no means basically understood the facility shift in Washington caused by the 2018 midterms. He went from dealing with an all-Republican Congress to having to fend off a ferocious Democratic majority within the House that has largely held collectively regardless of its geographic and ideological variety. That's one cause, perhaps, that he finds himself impeached heading into 2020.

ALSO: This missive from TRUMP got here after this presidential message: “Collectively, we must attempt to foster a culture of deeper understanding and respect—traits that exemplify the teachings of Christ.”

IN CASE SAN FRANCISCO DEMS ARE LOOKING FOR TRUMP’S ADVICE, @realDonaldTrump this morning: “‘Nancy Pelosi has no leverage over the Senate. Mitch McConnell did not nose his method into the impeachment course of in the Home, and she or he has no standing in the Senate.’ Brad Blakeman. Loopy Nancy should clear up her filthy soiled District & help the homeless there. A main for N?”

-- FOR THE RECORD: California doesn't have traditional primaries. It has a “jungle main,” during which both parties participate, and the highest two vote-getters face off within the basic election. In 2018, PELOSI acquired 68.5% in a seven-candidate jungle main subject -- the subsequent highest vote-getter acquired 9.1%. She gained the overall election with 86.eight%.

A PEEK UNDER THE HOOD … NYT, A1 … ERIC LIPTON and STEVE EDER: “For Trump Organization, Office Skyscrapers Make Up for Lagging Inns”: “With lodge enlargement plans thwarted, marquee motels in New York, Panama and Toronto stripped of the Trump identify, and revenues lagging or comparatively flat at properties like Doral, rising lease collections at workplace and business properties have offered the Trump Group a sorely needed increase.

“Revenues at office towers on Sixth Avenue in Midtown, on Wall Road in downtown Manhattan and at a 3rd constructing in San Francisco — cities which are centers of political opposition to the president — have each jumped throughout Mr. Trump’s tenure within the White Home, outperforming the family’s a lot better recognized belongings like Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue in New York, financial filings present. ‘Our office buildings are killing it,’ Eric Trump stated in an interview. ‘It's underneath appreciated.’” NYT

BIG POLITICO MAG INVESTIGATION -- “How Close Did Russia Really Come to Hacking the 2016 Election?” by Kim Zetter: “Government studies indicate a Florida election know-how company was hacked in 2016. There’s lots the general public doesn’t know concerning the incident—however should—going into 2020.”

-- WAPO: “U.S. Cybercom contemplates info warfare to counter Russian interference in 2020 election,” by Ellen Nakashima: “Army cyber officials are creating info warfare techniques that could possibly be deployed towards senior Russian officials and oligarchs if Moscow tries to intrude within the 2020 U.S. elections by means of hacking election methods or sowing widespread discord, in accordance with present and former U.S. officers.

“One choice being explored by U.S. Cyber Command would target senior leadership and Russian elites, though in all probability not President Vladimir Putin, which would be thought-about too provocative, stated the current and former officials who spoke on the situation of anonymity due to the difficulty’s sensitivity. The concept can be to point out that the target’s sensitive personal knowledge could possibly be hit if the interference didn't cease, though officers declined to be more particular.” WaPo

-- “Election officials learn military mindset ahead of 2020 vote,” by AP’s Christina Cassidy

Good Thursday morning. Glad Boxing Day.

FLAGGING FOR STEPHEN MILLER AND CO. -- L.A. TIMES: “Seeing a Central American surge, Mexicans be a part of the asylum line at the U.S. border,” by Patrick McDonald in Matamoros, Mexico: “Word about Central People and others gaining U.S. footholds by way of the asylum course of has spread to violence-racked areas of Mexico, prompting many to go north to frame cities, from Matamoros on the Gulf of Mexico to Tijuana on the Pacific.

“‘First we heard concerning the caravans, then we heard that the Central People have been getting asylum within the United States,’ stated José Antonio Mendoza, 28, another asylum hopeful here from Guerrero, the western Mexican state the place Acapulco is additionally situated. ‘After which we heard that asylum was also a risk for Mexicans.’ Mendoza has been waiting right here for 2 months together with his wife and two youngsters, ages three and seven.” LAT

A USEFUL UPDATE ON THE GOVERNMENT, by way of WaPo’s Greg Miller and Greg Jaffe: “The new Russia adviser on the White Home — the third in just six months — has no meaningful background on the topic. The one professional on Ukraine has by no means spoken with President Trump, only been mocked by him publicly.

“The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv will quickly be with out its highest-ranking diplomat for the second time in a yr, as one other ambassador departs after being undermined by the U.S. president and his personal lawyer.

“The CIA analyst who triggered the impeachment inquiry continues to work on points referring to Russia and Ukraine, however when threats towards him spike — typically seemingly spurred by presidential tweets — he's pushed to and from work by armed safety officers.

“Having been impeached by the Home, Trump faces trial within the Senate on fees that he abused the facility of his workplace and sought to impede Congress. But the jarring developments over the past three months have also exposed the extent to which the nationwide security institution and the values that have traditionally guided American overseas policy are dealing with an extraordinary trial of their very own underneath Trump’s presidency.” WaPo

HMM … “Murkowski ‘disturbed’ by McConnell’s vow for ‘complete coordination’ with White House for impeachment trial,” by KTUU’s Sean Maguire: “‘And in fairness, when I heard that I was disturbed,’ Murkowski stated earlier than describing that there must be distance between the White Home and the Senate in how the trial is carried out. ‘To me it signifies that we should take that step back from being hand in glove with the defense, and so I heard what leader McConnell had stated, I happened to assume that that has further confused the method.’

“Murkowski was important of the impeachment process carried out within the House of Representatives that she describes as rushed. … She says the Senate is now being requested to remedy deficiencies in the proof that can be introduced on the trial, notably with regards to whether or not key witnesses ought to be introduced forward to testify … Murkowski remains undecided how she would vote when the trial takes place.” KTUU

-- WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS? It’s robust to tell. If Murkowski is, indeed, disturbed by McConnell’s phrases, does that mean she is going to build a coalition and block the principles for impeachment? Does she consider TRUMP ought to be removed from office? We need to see how it will translate into motion to completely perceive the implications.

DOUG LETTER PROFILE … WAPO: “In courtroom, he speaks for Speaker Nancy Pelosi,” by Ann Marimow: “After a 40-year career on the Justice Department, defending policies of presidential administrations from both parties, Letter now speaks for the speaker in courtrooms all through the country whereas advising House leaders on impeachment. …

“Together with his small workforce of legal professionals, Letter is locked in pitched battles with the Trump administration, which has vowed to struggle all congressional subpoenas for documents and testimony — and resisted cooperating with Home impeachment proceedings. As common counsel to the Home, Letter has a hand in an outsize variety of fast-moving legal fights between Congress and the president. …

“Letter, 66, sleeps only 4 hours on a typical night time, in response to buddies and former colleagues. When he’s not in courtroom or crafting legal filings, he briefs Democrats on strategy and advises House leaders on impeachment. He talks ceaselessly with Pelosi in conferences, by telephone or in texts, with messages that also touch on a shared affinity for sports teams from the Bay Area, the place Letter grew up.” WaPo

2020 WATCH …

-- “Democrats seize on anti-Obamacare ruling to steamroll GOP in 2020,” by Alice Miranda Ollstein and James Arkin: “A courtroom ruling last week putting the Reasonably priced Care Act additional in jeopardy might provide the opening Democrats have been waiting for to regain the upper hand on health care towards Republicans in 2020.

“At the newest Democratic presidential debate, candidates largely prevented discussing the lawsuit or Republicans’ years-long efforts to dismantle Obamacare, and as an alternative continued their intra-party battle over Medicare for All.

“However Senate Democrats, Democratic candidates and outdoors teams backing them immediately jumped on the news of the federal appeals courtroom ruling — blasting out advertisements and statements reminding voters of Republicans’ votes to repeal the 2010 well being care regulation, help the lawsuit and ensure the judges who might deliver about Obamacare’s demise.” POLITICO

-- BUTTIGIEG POLICY X-RAY ... WAPO: “Buttigieg health plan hinges on ‘supercharged’ version of unpopular Obamacare mandate,” by Jeff Stein and Chelsea Janes: “Democratic presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg sells his health-care plan as a average various to Medicare-for-all — providing a government-sponsored plan to those that need it whereas letting others hold their personal and employer-sponsored insurance coverage.

“But the South Bend, Ind., mayor’s plan has a catch: In case you choose to not enroll in any coverage, you might nonetheless be on the hook for hundreds of dollars. Beneath Buttigieg’s proposal, People who lack coverage can be mechanically enrolled within the government plan, probably saddling them with an enormous invoice at the end of the yr for ‘retroactive’ coverage.

“Buttigieg’s campaign has stated the proposal will guarantee the candidate’s promise of common health protection — without eliminating personal insurance, as a few of his extra liberal opponents have proposed.

“But critics say the coverage represents an expanded model of one of many least widespread points of President Obama’s 2010 health-care regulation: the person mandate, which fined People for not having medical insurance. The mandate was repealed by the 2017 Republican tax regulation and dominated unconstitutional final week by an appeals courtroom. None of the different leading Democratic hopefuls have reprised it as part of their health-care plans.” WaPo

-- NYT’S KATIE GLUECK in Creston, Iowa: “The ‘But I Would Vote for Joe Biden’ Republicans”: “The voters at marketing campaign events for Joseph R. Biden Jr. here in Iowa and across the nation aren’t simply purchasing for a candidate for themselves.

“As they jostle to take footage with the former vice president and take heed to him preach about nationwide unity, they are sometimes interested by someone else — a dad, a neighbor or a colleague. They think about the political leanings of people close to them who're uncomfortable with probably the most liberal presidential contenders, but who hate the chaos of the Trump era and are receptive to the sort of centrist, seasoned candidacy Mr. Biden gives.

“Some Democrats have been warning the celebration not to obsess over these potential swing voters, arguing that electability calculations about legendary undecided moderates are futile at this second of utmost political polarization. However for many Biden supporters, those voters are their Republican-leaning kinfolk and buddies. And their perspectives are an increasingly outstanding consideration as the Iowa caucuses close to.”

TRUMP’S THURSDAY -- The president has nothing on his public schedule at present.

HAPPENING TODAY -- “Netanyahu’s Survival Is Tested as Likud Get together Holds Management Vote,” by NYT’s Isabel Kershner in Jerusalem: “With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future on the line — and probably Israel’s — members of his conservative Likud get together voted Thursday on whether or not to stay with their scandal-scarred chief or exchange him ahead of a basic election in March.

“Mr. Netanyahu, who was indicted final month on corruption fees including bribery, was extensively expected to prevail over his challenger, Gideon Saar, a seasoned but less fashionable celebration veteran. Even so, this is probably the most critical challenge to the prime minister’s celebration leadership since 2005, and fears of a low turnout on a day of dangerous weather made the result more durable to predict.

“The results of the vote, anticipated to be recognized early Friday, will determine whether or not Mr. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, will lead Likud into the nation’s third parliamentary election in less than a yr.” NYT

-- POLITICAL CHAOS IN IRAQ … THE NATIONAL: “Iraq president Barham Salih gives to step down amid protests”: “Iraqi President Barham Salih has handed his resignation to parliament after refusing to endorse a nominee for the prime ministership from an Iran backed political group.

“He stated that he would somewhat step down than decide a new prime minister rejected by demonstrators but as the structure does not permit him to reject a nomination he would resign. Parliament will now have to satisfy to debate and vote on the resignation. In the event that they endorse the move, Mr Salih will step down.

“Parliament’s Binaa bloc on Wednesday nominated Assad Al Eidani, the governor of Basra and a former minister of youth and sports. The alliance is led by Iranian-backed politician Hadi Al Amiri.” The National

CRACKDOWN IN MOSCOW -- “Russian authorities raid Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny’s Moscow office,” by Reuters’ Andrew Osborn and Anastasia Teterevleva: “Russian authorities raided the Moscow headquarters of opposition politician Alexei Navalny on Thursday, utilizing power tools to realize entry earlier than dragging Navalny out by drive and confiscating technical gear similar to laptops.

“Navalny and his allies stated the raid on his Anti-Corruption Basis (FBK) was carried out by the Federal Bailiffs Service and was related to his refusal to delete a video investigation which leveled graft allegations towards Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and billionaire businessman Alisher Usmanov.” Reuters

-- EARLIER … WSJ: “In a Big Shift, Russians Take to the Streets Over Everyday Complaints”

FOR YOUR RADAR -- REUTERS/BEIJING: “China, Russia, Iran to maintain joint naval drills beginning Friday”: “China, Iran and Russia will maintain joint naval drills beginning on Friday in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Oman, China’s defense ministry stated on Thursday，amid heightened pressure within the region between Iran and the USA.

“China will send the Xining, a guided missile destroyer, to the drills, which can last until Monday, and are meant to deepen cooperation between the three nations’ navies, ministry spokesman Wu Qian advised a month-to-month information briefing.” Reuters

L.A. TIMES: “Americans are retiring to Vietnam, for cheap healthcare and a decent living standard,” by Ralph Jennings

Ship tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Matthew Verghese, deputy COS and communications director for Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Md.). How he’s celebrating: “I’ve come to like having my birthday right after Christmas because yearly I get a chance to go residence to Maryland and have fun with family and associates new and previous. … Luckily, my boss -- Congressman Brown -- is letting me skip staffing him when he presides over the pro-forma session this morning. Last yr he had an interview on ‘Morning Joe’ at 7 a.m. on the federal government shutdown, which was far too early a begin for my birthday.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: DoD’s Jonathan Hoffman ... DOJ’s Mary Blanche Hankey … Katie Fallon, Hilton’s international head of company affairs … Candy Crowley … Mike Hammer, U.S. ambassador to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (h/t Ben Chang) ... Jared Bernstein, senior fellow at the Middle on Price range and Coverage Priorities ... Noelle Troost … Eloy Martinez, senior director of presidency relations at the American Gaming Affiliation ... Natasha Walsh ... Andrew Weber ... Noa Meyer ... former Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) is 64 ... David Sedaris is 63 ... Kristin Davison ... Scott Shepard ... former California Gov. Grey Davis is 77 ... Alex Zuckerman, senior coordinating editor at Newsy ... Alison Moore ... Peter Segall …

… Joe Maloney, associate at Locust Road Group, is 4-0 … Georgiana Cavendish ... Ron Parker (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) … Dan Drew … William Gordon … Bullpen Strategy Group’s Alex Angel … Emily Cyr, affiliate producer for “Firing Line with Margaret Hoover” ... Nate Baker … Amelia Colton ... Sally Fox ... Jeff Quinton ... Matt Neufeld is 58 ... Jeremy Broggi ... Synim Rivers ... Cole Henry is 33 ... Charlie Summers is 6-Zero ... POLITICO Europe’s Clémence Vatier ... Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe … Rob Pyron ... Joe Mosby ... Jane Track ... Ellen Area ... Will Heyniger is 57 ... Dave Nieuwstraten ... Jennifer Duck ... Sarada Peri ... Scott Lear … Joe Deoudes … Jill Cooper Udall ... Holly Shannon ... Jon Henke … Bishop Garrison

Article originally revealed on POLITICO Magazine

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