POLITICO Playbook: What new polling tells us about impeachment

NEW POLLING … Home Democratic leadership has been fond of claiming that they don't seem to be in any respect targeted on the political influence of impeachment, they usually bristle on the suggestion that it ought to be a concern.

WELL, IT IS, as a result of on Capitol Hill, the whole lot -- even issues of "conscience" and "obligation" -- is carried out in a political world. Whereas Democrats pursue impeachment, Republicans are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars and getting prepared to spend tens of millions more in districts where they consider impeachment is incredibly unpopular.

REPUBLICANS’ THEORY, usually talking, is that national polling for impeachment issues little or no when it comes to regulate of the Home. Look as an alternative, they are saying, at the polling in the dozens of districts that President DONALD TRUMP gained that are presently held by Democrats.

THE AMERICAN ACTION NETWORK -- one of the important Home GOP outdoors groups -- is among the entities that is spending piles of money to drive that point residence. A number of weeks in the past, we informed you that AAN was spending $7 MILLION on television in an effort to brand the impeachment as politically motivated, and hampering Congress’ work in different crucial areas. One of those ads is here

THE GROUP checked up on its funding on Sunday and Monday with polling, and says these advertisements are having a reasonably vital impression.

AAN polled within the swing districts of Reps. SUSIE LEE (D-Nev.) and ANTHONY BRINDISI (D-N.Y.) and the very heavily Trump district represented by Rep. KENDRA HORN (D-Okla.).

HERE’S THE TOPLINE: IMPEACHMENT APPEARS -- at this level, in accordance with this polling -- to be a liability. In BRINDISI’S and LEE’S districts, 53% of voters are less more likely to vote for them if they help impeachment. 48% of voters are much less more likely to vote for HORN -- whose district is sort of conservative.

THIS IS NOTABLE TOO … MORE THAN 60% in each of those districts say they consider voters, not the impeachment course of, should determine whether or not to maintain Trump in workplace.

POLITICIANS ARE VERY FOND OF SAYING that impeachment merely isn’t breaking by means of back house, but this ballot exhibits that’s BS. 64% of LEE’S constituents have seen, read or heard about their consultant on impeachment, 78% of BRINDISI’S and 79% of HORN’S. The four-page polling memo

HMM … TRUMP CAMPAIGN MANAGER BRAD PARSCALE tweeted a ballot Thursday of HORN’S district that showed 45% of her district is for impeachment. WAPO’S MIKE DEBONIS pointed out that that’s fairly robust for Democrats. He’s right.

-- WAPO'S @mikedebonis: “In case you are telling Dem strategists that OK-05 (Trump+14, Romney+19) is 45% pro-impeach, I am guessing they're going to really feel pretty darn good about holding the majority.”

PELOSI, FROM 30,000 FT. … SARAH FERRIS, JOHN BRESNAHAN and HEATHER CAYGLE: “Pelosi goes it alone on impeachment”: “Speaker Nancy Pelosi by no means needed to impeach President Donald Trump. But now that it’s occurring, she’s doing it her own means — in 4 inch heels and with an iron grip. Pelosi has tightly scripted each step of the House’s march towards impeachment.

“All the important thing selections — whether or not to move ahead with an inquiry, who shall be in command of the probe, and whether or not to start drafting impeachment articles — have been made solely by Pelosi, then conveyed afterwards to her 12-member leadership group, in line with multiple lawmakers and aides who're frequently in contact together with her.

“Even her prime committee chairmen — together with Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), head of the panel charged with drafting articles of impeachment towards Trump — have been forged in supporting roles at occasions, learning particulars about Pelosi’s plans after she’s made them. Pelosi, lengthy recognized for her top-down leadership fashion, has taken it to extremes these previous couple of weeks as the House nears the final levels of the impeachment inquiry.” POLITICO

-- MORE ON PELOSI … NYT’S SHERYL GAY STOLBERG: “Pelosi’s Leap on Impeachment: From No Go to No Choice” … WAPO’S RACHAEL BADE and MIKE DEBONIS: “‘The president gave us no choice’: Pelosi resisted Trump’s impeachment, now she’s the public face”

WHAT PELOSI TOLD JAKE TAPPER … TAPPER: “If a Democrat wins in 2020, would you be happy to go residence as a result of Obamacare can be protected? Or not?” PELOSI: “Nicely, I’ll see. “I’m not on a timetable. I’m on a mission.”

-- BTW: The rationale Pelosi’s not on a timetable is because Democrats by no means passed term limits for the speakership, which Pelosi supported in the course of the leadership election!

PELOSI on a shutdown: “I don’t assume we're headed for a shutdown. I don’t assume anybody needs that. I feel the president and the Republicans discovered in the final shutdown that it simply wasn’t -- there was no upside to it, despite the fact that the president has stated I’ll take delight in shutting down authorities. I do not assume he’s going to take delight in shutting it down again.

“WE WOULD HOPE TO BE FINISHED BY THE 21ST. And we’re on a superb path. If we’re not, we'll just go to a unbroken resolution till a pair -- you understand, until after Christmas. But I hope we don’t have to try this. But I don’t assume anybody needs to see a shutdown.”

AUDIENCE QUESTION … “This impeachment process is historic. How do you need to be remembered as a part of it?” PELOSI: “As part of it? No, I need to be half -- remembered as part of the Reasonably priced Care Act, about -- I need to be … I've to admit that at this time was quite historic. It was taking us -- crossing a threshold on this that we simply had no selection. I do hope that it will be remembered in a approach that honors the vision of our founders, of what that they had in thoughts for establishing a democracy, first time it ever was established within the history of the world.”

-- SHADE: TAPPER requested about her change with Sinclair reporter James Rosen, who asked if she hated Trump. PELOSI: “Sure, Sinclair -- is that a news source?”

As CNN's Oliver Darcy notes, this isn’t the primary time Pelosi has tangled with Rosen, whom she previously referred to as “Mr. Republican Talking Factors.” However a Sinclair spox advised Darcy that Rosen meant "no disrespect" by Thursday’s query.

CRITICAL READING FOR THE TRUMP WHITE HOUSE … “Senate Republicans puncture Home GOP goals for impeachment trial,” by Melanie Zanona and Burgess Everett: “On Wednesday, a conservative backbencher in the House issued an explosive request to Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham: Subpoena the telephone data of Home Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff. On Thursday, Graham had a succinct response: ‘We’re not going to do that.’

“The demand from Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) reflects House Republicans’ eagerness to see Democrats squirm as soon as impeachment strikes to the GOP-controlled Senate and out of the ‘sham’ process they’ve derided in the House. ‘I’m talking to my Senate colleagues: listed here are the witnesses it is best to name and here are the questions it is best to ask,’ stated Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah). ‘It’s going to forged us in a special very mild. This can be a probability to inform the opposite aspect of the story.’

“President Donald Trump has joined in as nicely, tweeting on Thursday that he needs to name Schiff, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Bidens as witnesses in his impeachment trial. However Senate Republicans are beginning to ship a actuality examine to the president and House Republicans that there are limits to what they can do.

“‘You bought two totally different our bodies here,’ Graham, a stalwart Trump ally, advised reporters on Thursday. ‘Are we going to start calling Home members over right here once we don’t like what they say or do? I don’t assume so.’” POLITICO

THE WHITE HOUSE SCHIFF PUSHBACK …

-- NYT’S MAGGIE HABERMAN and NICK FANDOS: “Trump Officials Dispute Some Giuliani Name Logs in Bid to Weaken Democrats’ Case”: “As a part of its portrait of Mr. Trump’s marketing campaign of strain on Ukraine, the committee’s report launched this week listed a number of calls between Mr. Giuliani and White House telephone numbers, including one ‘related to’ the White Home’s Workplace of Administration and Price range, cited within the report simply as ‘O.M.B. number.’

“Such calls prompt contact between Mr. Giuliani and key officers at vital moments throughout Mr. Trump’s dealings with Ukraine. The finances office was concerned within the administration’s freeze on $391 million in safety assist for Ukraine, a key lever within the president’s strain marketing campaign.

“But the telephone number is a generic White Home switchboard number, ‘202) 395-0000,’ individuals acquainted with the telephone data stated, making it troublesome to tell whose desk it got here from. While government directories record it as related to the price range workplace, additionally they present the quantity as related to workplaces in different elements of the White Home, together with the upper flooring of the West Wing and the National Safety Council.” NYT

-- WSJ: “Doubts Surface Over Giuliani-White House Budget Office Calls,” by Andrew Restuccia and Rebecca Ballhaus

Good Friday morning. UGH … NBC SPORTS: “Nationals owner Mark Lerner says team can’t afford Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon”

OPSEC WARNING! … “Telephone logs in impeachment report renew concern about safety of Trump communications,” by WaPo’s Paul Sonne, Josh Dawsey, Ellen Nakashima and Greg Miller: “President Trump has routinely communicated together with his personal lawyer, Rudolph W. Giuliani, and different people speaking on cellphones weak to monitoring by Russian and different overseas intelligence providers, present and former U.S. officials stated.

“Telephone data released this week by the Home Intelligence Committee revealed in depth communications between Giuliani, unidentified individuals on the White Home and others involved within the campaign to strain Ukraine, with no indication that those calls have been encrypted or otherwise shielded from overseas surveillance.

“The revelations increase the likelihood that Moscow was capable of study features of Trump’s try and get Ukraine to investigate a political rival months earlier than that effort was uncovered by a whistleblower report and the impeachment inquiry, officers stated.” WaPo

WILL HE OR WON’T HE? -- “Exclusive: Pompeo had off-the-books meeting with Republican donors in London this week,” by CNN’s Shimon Prokupecz and Kylie Atwood: “Secretary of State Mike Pompeo attended an off-the-books sit-down meeting with a conservative group that included a small number of rich Republican donors, which was not on his official schedule while he was in London to attend this week's NATO Summit.

“The gathering, hosted by the Hamilton Society, conveniently occurred in the lodge where Pompeo was staying, situated in a small events area on the second flooring. Pompeo slipped into the assembly, without the State Division alerting the press touring with him about the place he was headed or who he was going to satisfy.

“CNN reviewed a replica of the assembly invitation and spoke to multiple individuals who attended. The Hamilton Society is a group of right-leaning American and British business professionals who typically invite guest audio system to satisfy them.” CNN

BURGESS EVERETT and JAMES ARKIN: “Democrats woo Bullock for Senate. They’re over Beto”: “Washington Democrats are not pining for Beto O’Rourke. They’re far extra infatuated with one other ousted presidential candidate: Steve Bullock.

“O’Rourke has just three days before the Texas filing deadline to determine if he needs to run towards incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn. Yet many Senate Democrats aren’t positive O’Rourke would even be the strongest Senate candidate at this point after operating to the left in his presidential run, in order that they’re largely shedding the man who gave Ted Cruz a run for his cash in 2018.

“As an alternative, Democrats are all about Bullock, despite the fact that the Montana governor has tried to squash speak of a Senate run every probability he will get — the newest on Wednesday when he stated in Montana, ‘that’s simply not what I need to do.’” POLITICO

2020 WATCH -- NYT’S “THE LONG RUN” SERIES … “When Pete Buttigieg Was One of McKinsey’s ‘Whiz Kids,’” by Michael Forsythe

-- NYT ed board chimes in: “Buttigieg’s Untenable Vow of Silence”

SUNDAY SO FAR …

TRUMP’S FRIDAY -- The president will participate in a roundtable on small business and “pink tape reduction accomplishments” within the Roosevelt Room. He and first woman Melania Trump will participate in a Christmas reception at 3:15 p.m. within the Grand Lobby.

THE ATLANTIC’S DAVID FRUM: “Trump’s Supporters Are Displaying the Will to Win. Democrats Are Not.”

THE LATEST ON DRUG PRICING -- “Home leaders water down key liberal language in drug pricing invoice,” by Sarah Karlin-Smith and Adam Cancryn: “Home Democratic leaders plan to weaken language progressives inserted in a sweeping drug worth bill to discourage sharp value increases forward of a flooring vote on the legislation subsequent week, three individuals acquainted with the matter informed POLITICO.

“The move is more likely to immediate fierce backlash from Democrats’ liberal wing, and put progressive help for Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s high-profile invoice in danger. Liberal lawmakers had touted the supply authored by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) as essential to shoring up their help for laws that they otherwise found too delicate on the business. It will direct the federal authorities to examine easy methods to require drug makers to refund cash to employer-sponsored health plans when the businesses raised costs above the speed of inflation.

“The federal government would have to challenge laws based mostly on its research — a key component that Jayapal stated would pressure federal businesses to additional rein in drug prices. However in a gathering with advocacy teams this afternoon, prime Democratic leadership and committee staffers stated the final bill would drop the mandate that the federal government impose new laws — only requiring it to only conduct a research, a number of individuals in the room stated.” POLITICO

UPDATE -- “Trump pulled into feud between prime health officials,” by Dan Diamond, Rachana Pradhan and Adam Cancryn: “President Donald Trump has personally tried to settle the long-running feud between his two prime well being appointees, telling his health secretary to repair the connection together with his Medicare chief, stated three individuals with information of the state of affairs.

“Trump and Seema Verma, who runs the Facilities for Medicare and Medicaid Providers, privately met in mid-November amid escalating tensions between her and Well being and Human Providers Secretary Alex Azar, based on two sources acquainted with the meeting. Across the similar time, Trump instructed Azar to clean issues over. Those conversations came shortly before POLITICO first reported on the souring relationship between Azar and Verma, whose agency sits inside HHS.

“Days after the POLITICO report, Verma also met one-on-one with Vice President Mike Pence, one in every of her strongest backers in the White House. The meeting was unusually publicized, appearing on Pence's official schedule. Axios first reported Trump’s involvement. The White Home didn’t reply to request for remark. HHS and CMS declined to remark.” POLITICO

ACROSS THE POND -- “4 Brexit Celebration MEPs ditch Nigel Farage and back Conservatives,” by Emilio Casalicchio in London: “The Brexit Social gathering was plunged into chaos when four of its MEPs resigned to back the Conservative Social gathering in the common election.

“The rebels, led by Yorkshire and the Humber MEP John Longworth, condemned Brexit Get together leader Nigel Farage over his electoral technique at a press conference in Westminster on Thursday, and referred to as on him to face candidates down in scores of Conservative target seats forward of the December 12 ballot. ...

“A party official stated: ‘We're here to maintain the f*ckers [the Tories] trustworthy. How can we maintain the f*ckers trustworthy if we stand down?’” POLITICO Europe

-- HAPPENING TODAY … SIX DAYS OUT … ANNABELLE DICKSON: “Jeremy Corbyn will this night face Boris Johnson for the final time before next week’s election in what shall be certainly one of his final possibilities to shift the dial and shut the ballot hole on his rival. The pair will go head-to-head in an hour-long BBC debate in Kent.

“With lower than every week to go earlier than polling day, the election is reaching the business finish, and the undecided voters who will finally form the result of the election are beginning to tune in. Both candidates know tonight isn't the moment for an election-defining gaffe.” London Playbook

NEW WORLD ORDER -- “World Financial institution adopts $1 billion-plus annual China lending plan over U.S. objections,” by Reuters’ David Lawder: “The World Bank on Thursday adopted a plan to assist China with $1 billion to $1.5 billion in low-interest loans yearly by means of June 2025, despite the objections of U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

“Mnuchin advised a Home Financial Providers Committee listening to that the Treasury’s consultant on the bank’s board had objected to the plan on Wednesday, including he needed the World Bank to ‘graduate’ China from its concessional loan packages for low- and middle-income nations.” Reuters … The plan

MEDIAWATCH -- JOSH OWENS for NYT MAG: “I Labored for Alex Jones. I Remorse It.”: “Over time, I came to study that protecting Jones from getting indignant was an enormous part of the job, though it was unimaginable to predict his outbursts. Stories abounded among my co-workers: The blinds caught, so he ripped them off the wall. A water cooler had mould in it, so he grabbed a large knife, stabbed the plastic base wildly and smashed it on the ground. Headlines weren’t robust enough; the news wasn’t being coated the best way he needed; reporters didn’t know find out how to gown correctly.

“As soon as a co-worker stopped by the office with a pet fish he was taking residence to his niece. It swam in circles in a small, clear bag. When Jones noticed the bag balanced upright on a desk in the convention room, he emptied it right into a garbage can. On one event, he threatened to send out a memo banning laughter in the workplace. ‘We’re in a warfare,’ he stated, and he needed individuals to act accordingly.” NYT Magazine

-- The Pulitzer Prizes are adding a new class: Audio Reporting. Announcement

-- John Yearwood might be deputy editor for agriculture and trade at POLITICO Professional. He most lately was president of Yearwood Media and beforehand was a longtime world editor on the Miami Herald. … Leah Nylen might be an antitrust and investigations reporter for POLITICO Professional’s know-how group. She previously coated antitrust for MLex.

-- Anne Rumsey Gearan is joining MSNBC as a contributor. She’ll remain a White Home correspondent at WaPo.

-- Summer time Delaney is now a digital video reporter at “Inside Edition.” She beforehand was a digital host and reporter at WPIX, where she is going to proceed freelance hosting, and is a Yahoo News alum.

Ship tricks to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

SPOTTED: Reps. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Jeff Van Drew (D-N.J.) on the Prime Rib Thursday.

HOLIDAY PARTY CIRCUIT -- SPOTTED at Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Ann Scott’s Christmas parties Tuesday and Wednesday nights at their Capitol Hill townhouse: Sens. Invoice Cassidy (R-La.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), John Thune (R-S.D.) and Mike Braun (R-Ind.), USTR Robert Lighthizer, Rep. John Rutherford (R-Fla.), Linda McMahon, Amber Athey, Paul Bedard, Man Benson and Adam Clever, Diane Black, Shannon Bream, Harris Faulkner, Stephanie Hamill, Ann Marie Hauser, James Hohmann, Zack Hunter, Henry Rodgers and David Drucker.

-- SPOTTED at Washington Monthly’s 50th anniversary vacation social gathering Thursday night time: David Ignatius, Sidney Blumenthal, James Fallows, Jamie Merisotis, Kevin Carey, John Harris, Matthew Cooper, Gilad Edelman, Anne Kim, Anthony Shop and Adam Shapiro.

-- SPOTTED at USTelecom – The BroadBAND Association’s vacation get together Thursday night time at Union Stage, that includes a performance by the tech coverage geek band Harmful Interference: Reps. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.), Invoice Johnson (R-Ohio), Marc Veasey (D-Texas), Michael Burgess (R-Texas), Bob Latta (R-Ohio), Dave Loebsack (D-Iowa), Nanette Diaz Barragán (D-Calif.), Vincente Gonzalez (D-Texas), Filemon Vela (D-Texas) and Troy Balderson (R-Ohio), Jonathan Spalter, Allison Remsen, Mignon Clyburn and Gigi Sohn. Pic of the..

Src: POLITICO Playbook: What new polling tells us about impeachment
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