March Madness bracket tracker: Who&x27;s in, out and on NCAA Tournament bubble Austin Curtright, USA TODAY NETWORKSun, February 22, 2026 at 11:04 AM UTC 0 Less than a week remains before the college basketball calendar turns to March. The NCAA Tournament field is somewhat starting to shape up, with multiple teams pulling ahead as potential national championship favorites. Saturday, Feb. 21, was potentially even a Final Four preview, with No. 3 Duke defeating No. 1 Michigan and No. 4 Arizona beating No. 2 Houston.
March Madness bracket tracker: Who's in, out and on NCAA Tournament bubble
Austin Curtright, USA TODAY NETWORKSun, February 22, 2026 at 11:04 AM UTC
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Less than a week remains before the college basketball calendar turns to March.
The NCAA Tournament field is somewhat starting to shape up, with multiple teams pulling ahead as potential national championship favorites. Saturday, Feb. 21, was potentially even a Final Four preview, with No. 3 Duke defeating No. 1 Michigan and No. 4 Arizona beating No. 2 Houston.
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There are also assuredly to be a few bid stealers come conference championship season, which almost always throws a wrench when in the NCAA's plans with crafting the 68-team bracket.
Here's a look at the latest NCAA Tournament preview, including bubble teams and locks to reach March Madness:
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March Madness bracket bubble watch tracker
Based on games through Saturday, Feb. 21
NCAA Tournament locks -
Big Ten (7): Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin
Big 12 (6): Iowa State, Arizona, Kansas, Houston, BYU, Texas Tech
ACC (6): Duke, Louisville, Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, NC State
SEC (5): Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee
Big East (3): UConn, Villanova, St. John's
Other (2): Utah State, Saint Louis
There are 27 virtual locks for the NCAA Tournament, according to Bart Torvik's "TourneyCast," one of multiple metrics used by the NCAA in deciding the bracket. Each team listed has a 99.8% chance or better to reach the Tournament, per Torvik.
Torvik's metrics are part of the NCAA's BPI equation, alongside other third-party analyst Ken Pomeroy, who runs KenPom.
NCAA Tournament likely ins -
Big 12 (1): UCF
Big Ten (2): Indiana, UCLA
ACC (2): SMU, Miami
SEC (4): Kentucky, Texas A&M, Texas, Georgia
Big East (0): N/A
Other (3): Saint Mary's, New Mexico
There are a lot fewer likely-in teams than locks, due to there still being a few weeks left in the regular season, along with conference tournaments. Teams included have between a 70% and 99.8% chance to reach the NCAA Tournament, per Torvik.
NCAA Tournament bubble teams -
Big 12 (3): TCU, West Virginia, Cincinnati
Big Ten (3): Ohio State, USC, Washington
ACC (2): Virginia Tech, Cal
SEC (2): Auburn, Missouri
Big East (1): Seton Hall
Other (3): Santa Clara, San Diego State, VCU
Not all of these teams will reach the NCAA Tournament, and some might only have a chance at earning a bid through the conference tournament. Still, these teams have between a 5% and 57% chance of reaching the tournament as an at-large team, per Torvik.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bracket tracker: Who's in, out and on NCAA Tournament bubble
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Published: February 22, 2026 at 01:27PM on Source: RED MAG
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