POLITICO Playbook: Washington’s December nightmare

WE’VE COVERED A LOT OF DECEMBER LEGISLATIVE NIGHTMARES. This one is perhaps the worst. Not solely are there a ton of issues, however there are additionally a ton of explosive and contentious issues on a collision course. The WHITE HOUSE is beneath siege, and the DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY is making an attempt to do backflips on a tightrope. Time is a valuable commodity, as is political capital, and everyone is going to try to maximize both.

IT’S FOLLY at this level to predict what may happen, because nobody has any clue. But there are a couple of storylines value maintaining an in depth eye on, based mostly on our reporting and the collective knowledge of our colleagues. (Because of Bres for helping with the timeline.)

-- HOUSE DEMOCRATS WANT TO IMPEACH BY YEAR END. IS THAT DOABLE OR ADVISABLE? Some Dems are starting to assume that dashing to finish the process by the top of the yr -- a utterly arbitrary deadline -- is a dumb concept. Democrats, for their part, need to strike while the iron is scorching and never depart such an explosive concern lingering.

BUT TIME IS QUITE SHORT, and the politics are getting even more difficult for Home Dems. This week: Home Intel Chairman ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) will start circulating his report to members, and his committee will vote on it Tuesday. Anticipate assaults on Schiff and the Intel process and continued undermining of the committee’s work. Wednesday is Judiciary’s first hearing about what an impeachable offense is. THE PRESIDENT -- as we foreshadowed final week -- shouldn't be collaborating.

SOMETIME DURING THIS WEEK, House Judiciary Chairman JERRY NADLER (D-N.Y.) will possible formally announce a listening to with Schiff to present the report. By Friday, the White House has to say whether it's going to take part within the impeachment course of at all.

NEXT WEEK (DEC. 9): Anticipate an early presentation of Schiff’s report and the noticing of a Republican response. Will this happen during the same week? Unclear -- however it is going to be telling in understanding whether Dems can impeach by the top of the yr. The DOJ IG report on the origins of the Russia probe will come out this similar week. And Congress will doubtless start considering some funding payments forward of a Dec. 20 deadline (extra on that in a second).

WEEK OF DEC. 16: Anticipate a public GOP response in the committee to Schiff and his report this week. And, if the Dems need to impeach earlier than the top of the yr, we’d should see articles of impeachment this week. Keep in mind: It took Judiciary three days in 1998 to draft impeachment articles. And, to complicate things additional, government funding runs out Dec. 20.

PONDER THIS: Politically, Democrats are already all in on impeachment. Sure, they’re nervous concerning the onset of the 2020 main contests, however what do they achieve by jamming it via now as an alternative of ready until subsequent yr?

INTERESTING … AS WE REPORTED LAST WEEK, the president’s legal professionals usually are not collaborating in the impeachment proceedings in the intervening time. Read PAT CIPOLLONE’S letter to the Judiciary Committee. In contrast to his last letter, which was utterly political and appeared like President DONALD TRUMP wrote it, this one seems like a lawyer. He says they do not know who is testifying, they don’t have sufficient time to organize, and Democrats didn't ask when his legal professionals can be out there. Read the letter … More from Andrew Desiderio and Kyle Cheney … NYT’s Nick Fandos on the process moving to Judiciary

-- OK, AND WHAT ABOUT GOVERNMENT FUNDING? The federal government will shut down in 18 days -- absent congressional motion -- and there are lots of strategies being discussed. Congress might move some low-hanging fruit -- non-controversial government funding bills -- after which delay the robust ones until next yr. That seems probably the most logical, but individuals concerned in the talks appear to assume they may be capable of fund all the government this month. There are 12 appropriations bills.

ONE THING IS CLEAR: It’s in no one’s curiosity to fall back on a full-year stopgap invoice, which might end in $100 billion less of government spending. And, moreover, a shutdown doesn’t serve SENATE REPUBLICANS’ curiosity, since their majority is at risk subsequent yr, they usually don't have anything to realize from a funding lapse.

BUT HERE’S A WILD CARD: Will one pro-Trump senator hold up government funding with some demand on impeachment?

-- NOW CONSIDER EVERYTHING ELSE. Can you imagine getting a package deal of tax extenders by means of? Are you able to foresee USMCA squeezing via this tight timeline? How about NDAA?

Good Monday morning.

WSJ: “President Trump Shifts Tone Ahead of NATO Summit: Trump heads to London keen to steer on overseas policy as impeachment inquiry continues at residence,” by Catherine Lucey: “President Trump heads to a meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization this week, in search of to showcase his work on the world stage as the impeachment inquiry continues at house.

“Mr. Trump, who as a candidate labeled the alliance obsolete, has upended previous gatherings together with his complaints that members must spend extra on protection. However his White House struck a more conciliatory tone forward of the Dec. Three-Four meeting to mark NATO’s 70th anniversary, taking credit score for increased army spending by member nations and declaring that the ‘trans-Atlantic relationship is in a very, very healthy place.’” WSJ

THE VIEW FROM ACROSS THE POND … JACK BLANCHARD on the timing of Trump’s visit, just forward of the British elections: “The U.S. president represents the kind of random issue you frankly don't need in play when you've a soft-ish however wholesome lead in the polls and simply want all the things to hold on as it's in the runup to polling day. The weekend papers have been filled with tales that the PM can be retaining his distance as a lot as potential, however in the long run there will probably be no restraining Trump if he decides to stick his oar into U.Okay. politics this week.” London Playbook

… AND IN CHINA … BLOOMBERG: “China to Sanction U.S. Nonprofits, Halt Navy Visits Over Hong Kong”: “China vowed to sanction some American rights organizations and halt warship visits to Hong Kong in response to President Donald Trump’s determination to sign laws supporting the town’s protesters.

“Chinese language Overseas Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying advised a news briefing Monday that groups focused for sanctions included the Nationwide Endowment for Democracy, Human Rights Watch and Freedom House. Hua stated that China would also droop additional Hong Kong port visits by U.S. Navy ships over the laws, which Trump signed into regulation Wednesday.

“Hua didn’t present particulars on how China would sanction the rights teams, that are already restricted from operating on the mainland. Similarly, China had already refused visits by a pair of American warships in August.” Bloomberg

GIULIANI’S PAL PURGED … WAPO’S MICHAEL BIRNBAUM and DAVID STERN: “Ukraine’s Zelensky is making headway towards corruption. However the struggle dangers angering Trump”: “By the end of this month, greater than 500 Ukrainian prosecutors might be out of their jobs as a part of sweeping professional critiques beneath Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Among the many prosecutors heading for the exit: a key Kyiv contact for Rudolph W. Giuliani.

“The prosecutor purge is only one of a number of corruption-busting efforts set in movement by Zelensky. However it puts into sharp aid Zelensky’s twin challenges — making an attempt to stability his clean-government promises at house together with his must hold President Trump from turning towards him.” WaPo

KNOWING JAY SEKULOW -- “Trump’s Other Personal Lawyer: Close to the Proper, however Far From Giuliani,” by NYT’s Elizabeth Williamson: “Jay Sekulow is a real lawyer, and he performs one on TV. Mr. Sekulow, the coordinator of President Trump’s personal authorized workforce, doesn't have an workplace within the White House. He is greatest referred to as a prodigious fund-raiser on evangelical tv and a litigator for the Christian right, not for dealing with felony prosecutions or government energy disputes. In 2016, Mr. Sekulow stated he voted for Hillary Clinton, in line with individuals close to him.

“But with the House Judiciary Committee set to start impeachment hearings on Wednesday and Mr. Trump enmeshed in authorized battles on other fronts — like his tax returns, claims of immunity from prosecution and parts of his immigration and health care insurance policies — Mr. Sekulow has emerged as certainly one of Mr. Trump’s most trusted advisers and constant defenders in the news media.

“Working beneath the identify Constitutional Litigation & Advocacy Group from a co-working area in a Pennsylvania Avenue workplace building, Mr. Sekulow, 63, coordinates the efforts of eight outdoors legal professionals enlisted to assist Mr. Trump. He's in regular touch with the White House counsel, Pat A. Cipollone, and speaks regularly with the president.” NYT

ALEX ISENSTADT and MELANIE ZANONA: “Georgia governor set to buck Trump on Senate appointment”: “Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has begun informing Republican officers he plans to appoint monetary providers government Kelly Loeffler to the state’s soon-to-be vacant Senate seat, based on three individuals conversant in the conversations.

“Members of the state’s Republican congressional delegation have been among those to receive a heads-up from Kemp on his choice, based on an aide to a House Republican from Georgia who acquired a name from the governor over the weekend. A spokesperson for Kemp declined to comment. Loeffler’s anticipated choice was first reported by the Atlanta Journal Structure.

“The selection might face critical backlash from conservatives. President Donald Trump has advised Kemp he favors GOP Rep. Doug Collins, a staunch ally and the highest Republican on the Home Judiciary Committee, for the appointment. Kemp took Loeffler to the White House late final month to satisfy with the president. However the meeting didn't go as deliberate: Trump raised pointed considerations about whether or not Loeffler — who has never run for elected office before — is seasoned sufficient in politics to receive the nod.” POLITICO

2020 WATCH ...

-- AP: “Democrats goal to catch as much as Trump’s 2020 cash benefit,” by Brian Slodysko: “Democrats are narrowing President Donald Trump’s early spending advantage, with two billionaire White Home hopefuls becoming a member of established celebration groups to target the president in key battleground states which might be possible to determine the result of next yr’s election.

“Priorities USA and American Bridge, two of the leading Democratic outdoors teams, are ramping up operations. The group ACRONYM just lately pledged to spend $75 million. And former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has pledged to spend $100 million on advertisements concentrating on Trump, whereas California billionaire Tom Steyer promised $50 million.

“The billionaires have come beneath hearth from some Democratic rivals for making an attempt to buy the presidency. But the influx of cash is soothing nervousness in some corners of the social gathering that Trump, who has repeatedly broken fundraising data, was off to an unprecedented early begin within the 2020 promoting wars. Some had argued that the Democrats’ overwhelming concentrate on the sprawling presidential main subject allowed the president to burnish a reelection narrative unchallenged forward of what's anticipated to be an exceptionally shut election.” AP

-- NATASHA KORECKI in Carroll, Iowa: “Democrats call BS on malarkey”: “‘NO MALARKEY!’ screams the marketing campaign slogan on Joe Biden’s bus chugging by means of 18 Iowa counties this week. At stops alongside the best way, aides hand out stickers and posters to voters featuring the rallying cry. However when one high schooler attending the previous vice chairman’s event in Council Bluffs was asked if she knew what malarkey means, she squinted up on the large bus with a puzzled look. ‘Malarkey?’ Cece West requested. ‘I’ve never heard of it earlier than.’

“West’s response highlights a potential drawback with a term that Biden has put on the middle of his candidacy in the first-in-the-nation caucus state. And a few of the complaints about it are an extension of how Biden skeptics feel concerning the candidate himself. They don’t love or hate the slogan. Some of them stated it’s type of funny; others, type of corny. Whereas some voters welcomed the slogan as a throwback to a calmer period, others stated it will only alienate youthful voters. But many stated, backside line, they don’t fairly get it.” POLITICO

-- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Pete Buttigieg’s campaign is bringing on Rachel Thomas as deputy communications director, Matt Corridoni as deputy speedy response communications director and Hasoni Pratts as nationwide constituency director. Thomas was beforehand with Beto O’Rourke’s campaign, Corridoni was beforehand with Seth Moulton’s campaign and his Serve America PAC, and Pratts was most lately VP of opportunity zones for New York state.

-- “Joe Sestak ends 2020 presidential bid,” by Rishika Dugyala

TRUMP’S MONDAY -- The president and first woman Melania Trump will depart the White Home at 9:45 a.m. en route to London. They'll arrive at 9:45 p.m. native time (Four:45 p.m. Japanese time).

INTERVIEW DU JOUR -- “Lisa Web page Speaks: ‘There’s No Fathomable Approach I Have Dedicated Any Crime at All’” by The Every day Beast’s Molly Jong-Fast: “‘I had stayed quiet for years hoping it might fade away, however as an alternative it acquired worse,’ the former FBI lawyer advised Jong-Quick. ‘It had been so exhausting not to defend myself, to let individuals who hate me control the narrative. I decided to take my energy again.’” Daily Beast … Page’s new Twitter handle

ZACH WARMBRODT: “Maxine Waters’ new problem: AOC and freshman upstarts”: “California Democrat Katie Porter fought together with her over committee procedures. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other members of the Squad of progressive female lawmakers withheld their help from her over the Export-Import Financial institution. Their staffs have pressed her staff to provide them more time to weigh in on bills.

“The goal of these progressive freshmen: not some conservative Republican. It’s liberal icon Maxine Waters, chair of the House Financial Providers Committee, who is dealing with rising dissatisfaction — and at occasions outright insurrection — from high-profile, left-leaning lawmakers who joined the panel earlier this yr.

“Some progressives have brazenly lamented the committee’s leanings towards extra average, business-friendly Democrats who dominate its ranks — a dynamic largely outdoors of Waters’ management. Ocasio-Cortez vented at a Nov. 19 hearing on personal fairness that she was ‘quite upset’ with softball questions that members on each side of the aisle have been tossing at representatives of leveraged buyout companies tied to mass layoffs at corporations like Toys ‘R’ Us.

“‘There’s typically been some tensions,’ Ocasio-Cortez stated in an interview.” POLITICO

THE ATLANTIC’S YONI APPELBAUM: “America is present process a transition maybe no rich and secure democracy has ever experienced: Its traditionally dominant group is on its approach to turning into a political minority—and its minority groups are asserting their co-equal rights and pursuits. If there are precedents for such a transition, they lie here in the United States, where white Englishmen initially predominated, and the boundaries of the dominant group have been beneath negotiation ever since. But those precedents are hardly comforting. Many of those renegotiations sparked political conflict or open violence, and few have been as profound as the one now beneath means.” The Atlantic

FOR YOUR RADAR … HAPPENING TODAY … WSJ: “An 1,800-mile pipeline is about to begin delivering Russian natural fuel to China on Monday. The $55 billion channel is a feat of power infrastructure—and political engineering.

“Russia’s most vital power venture because the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Energy of Siberia pipeline is a physical bond strengthening a new era of cooperation between two world powers that have individually challenged the U.S.

“Beijing and Moscow, after years of rivalry and mutual suspicion, are increasing an financial and strategic partnership influencing international politics, commerce and power markets. At the similar time, Beijing is preventing a trade warfare with Washington, and Russia’s relations with the West develop colder.” WSJ

MEDIAWATCH -- “CBS Night Information with Norah O’Donnell” tonight begins broadcasting from its new residence base in D.C. … per CNN’s Brian Stelter: “New EP Jay Shaylor shall be based mostly in DC, and the present will cut up employees between DC and NYC.” CBS announcement

-- WHAT INSIDERS WILL BE WATCHING FOR: Being based mostly in D.C. is fascinating and distinctive. However what is going to CBS do in a different way than ABC and NBC, which both have employees right here and may get their anchors down right here in an hour or so?

-- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Kelly Jane Torrance is now an editorial board member on the New York Submit. She previously was senior editor for protection and overseas policy at the Washington Examiner and is a Weekly Normal alum.

-- Troy Bentley is becoming a member of Andrea Mitchell’s staff at MSNBC. He previously worked for CNN’s “Dependable Sources” with Brian Stelter. Reliable Sources

Ship tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

SPOTTED: John Kasich at Andiamo at the Detroit airport. Pic … Ed Royce on a United flight from LAX to Dulles on Sunday afternoon. … U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See Callista Gingrich and Newt Gingrich ready to board a flight from Boston Logan to Dulles on Sunday night time. … Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.) in coach on a Delta flight from Atlanta to DCA on Sunday afternoon.

TRANSITION -- Mark Carney will probably be U.N. special envoy for climate action and finance. He presently is governor of the Bank of England. BBC

ENGAGED -- Evan Fuka, an analyst for E3 Federal Options, proposed to Elizabeth Murray, director of operations for Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), at the Sagamore. Pic

WEEKEND WEDDING -- Lexie Hosier, digital director for Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), and Aaron Rock, a Marine Corps veteran who is getting a master’s in worldwide relations from the University of Indianapolis and works on the Hamilton County Humane Society, received married Friday on the Mill Prime in Noblesville, Ind. They met while working at Wounded Warrior Undertaking. Pic with their dog, Tilly

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Dan Puskar, president and CEO of the Public Lands Alliance, is 41. A fun reality that folks won't find out about him: “Most weekends I'm swinging on a flying trapeze, upside-down, and catching individuals in mid-air. I’m fortunate to be part of a welcoming, supportive group at Trapeze Faculty New York – Washington, DC in Navy Yard, and have been a part-time instructor there for three years. Anybody looking for a novel solution to take their thoughts and body out of D.C.’s hectic pace ought to verify out flying trapeze.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is Eight-Zero … Rep. Deb Haaland (D-N.M.) is 59 … former A.G. Edwin Meese is 88 … Stone Phillips is 65 … Cal Thomas is 77 … Bob Carey … Grant Everett Starrett … former Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D-N.H.) is 67 … former Rep. Pete Gallego (D-Texas) is 58 … Emily Schultheis … Carrie Wofford … Kelly Klass of Locust Road Group … Marc La Vorgna, spokesman for Michael Bloomberg’s marketing campaign … Glover Park Group’s Mina Moore … Lauren Cross is 28 … Sam Schneider … Nancy Haberman is 72 … Ken Babby … Jason Huntsberry … Alex Brief … Christina McSween …

… Brad Mielke, ABC reporter and host of the “Begin Right here” podcast … Caroline Gangware … Mark Irion, head of strategic communications at Hogan Lovells … Eleanor Schiff … Mairéad Lynn, deputy director of communications at EMILY’s Listing … Erin Bailey … Andrew Howell, companion at Monument Advocacy … Patricia Rojas-Ungár, VP for presidency affairs on the Outside Business Affiliation … John Hollis, writer and comms supervisor at GMU (h/ts Stewart Verdery) … former Sen. Wayne Allard (R-Colo.) is 76 … Conyers Davis … Rayshon Payton … Evan Walker … Shannon Kiely Heider … Mark A. Shiffrin … Celeste Brown

Article initially revealed on POLITICO Magazine

Src: POLITICO Playbook: Washington’s December nightmare
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