POLITICO Playbook: How both parties are thinking about impeachment’s next phase

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP IN LONDON this morning, sitting alongside NATO Secretary-Common JENS STOLTENBERG during a 52-minute photo-op/press convention:

SIREN! … TRUMP stated on the CHINA DEAL: “I've no deadline, no. In some ways I feel it’s better to wait until after the election, if you wish to know the reality. … In some methods I like ready till after the election for the China deal.”

-- TRUMP will meet with British PM BORIS JOHNSON: “I've no ideas on [his election], it’s going to be a really necessary election for this great country. However I have no thoughts on it. I can be assembly wIth him, sure.” … WHY IS TRUMP STAYING OUT OF THE ELECTION? “As a result of I don’t need to complicate it.” POLITICO Europe’s Emilio Casalicchio: “Trump timebomb lands in U.K. election campaign”

-- ON EMMANUEL MACRON’S STATEMENT THAT NATO IS BRAIN-DEAD: “You might have a really excessive unemployment fee in France. France isn't doing nicely economically in any respect. They’re starting to tax different individuals’s merchandise. So, subsequently, we’re going to tax them, that’s just happening right now on know-how, and we’re doing their wines and every part else. It’s a very robust assertion to make when you could have such problem in France. …

“I might say that no one needs NATO more than France. You look again on the last lengthy time period, no one wants NATO more than France. And admittedly, the one that advantages really the least is america.”

-- ON HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH MACRON, with whom he’s meeting later at present: “I feel it’s positive. I’ve all the time had a good relationship with Emmanuel. Typically he’ll say things that he shouldn’t say and I disagree with some of his policies with respect to France, but he’s gotta do what he’s gotta do.”

-- ON IMPEACHMENT: “It’s a hoax, the impeachment thing is a hoax, it’s turned out to be a hoax. It’s achieved for purely political achieve -- they’re going to see whether or not they can do something in 2020 because otherwise they’re going to lose.”

-- TRUMP SAYS NO TO A CENSURE OFFRAMP: “Unacceptable. I did nothing mistaken. … You don’t censure any person once they did nothing improper.”

-- WILL HE SANCTION TURKEY OVER BUYING RUSSIAN MILITARY EQUIPMENT?: “I like Turkey and I get along very nicely with the president … And he’s a very good member of NATO or might be.” Ahem … Reuters: “Turkey threatens to block NATO plan on summit eve”

-- POMPEO FOR SENATE? “I might say this: If I assumed we have been going to lose that seat, as a result of we shouldn’t lose that seat, it’s an ideal state, it’s a state that I gained overwhelmingly, as you realize … then I might sit down and speak to Mike. However you possibly can by no means discover anyone who might do a better job as secretary of State.”

FOR MARTY BARON: TRUMP referred to studying a narrative in The WASHINGTON POST at the least as soon as. This comes after his White Home stated they have been cancelling WaPo subscriptions.

FIRST LOOK THIS MORNING … BOTH PARTIES’ strategy going into the HOUSE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE part of impeachment:

-- HOUSE DEMOCRATS have launched a two-minute-thirty-nine-second video that opens with this: “Two weeks of testimony … One story of betrayal.” It then ticks via a lot of the witnesses’ most damning testimony, describing their position in the impeachment. For instance, this seems on the display earlier than Bill Taylor speaks: “The revered ambassador and adorned veteran … Who noticed the strain marketing campaign up close.” The video

REPUBLICANS’ PLAN FOR BATTLE WITH NADLER … AFTER TWO WEEKS of impeachment hearings, one factor seems beyond a doubt: House Intelligence Chairman ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) ran a tight ship. Republicans say it was too tight, and patently unfair. And Democrats say Schiff weaved together a decent story of intrigue, and put a bow on a package deal of criminality that implicated the president -- all whereas retaining different members of the committee in line.

ON WEDNESDAY, THE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE will take over. JUDICIARY was sidelined as soon as, so there’s rather a lot at stake for the panel, led by Rep. JERRY NADLER (D-N.Y.), and crammed with a number of the most conservative and liberal members of Congress.

REPUBLICANS FEEL THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO SLOW DEMOCRATS’ MOMENTUM. … And here’s how they assume they’re going to do it.

-- PROCEDURAL ROADBLOCKS: Rep. DOUG COLLINS (R-Ga.) -- the highest Republican on Judiciary -- is going to pressure procedural arguments with NADLER and struggle when Democrats try to bat them away. This can be a marked distinction from how Rep. DEVIN NUNES (R-Calif.) carried out himself -- keep in mind the Steele dossier? Collins is an lawyer, and these hearings aren’t investigative in nature -- so Republicans will concentrate on the definition of phrases like “bribery” and the standard of proof.

-- COLLINS VS. NADLER: Republicans consider that, in contrast to Schiff, Nadler might be knocked off kilter easily. Whereas Schiff spoke extemporaneously in complete sentences, Nadler -- according to Republican analysis -- tends to rely on notes.

-- BIG PLAYERS TO WATCH: Republicans are, once more, going to depend on Reps. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) and JOHN RATCLIFFE (R-Texas), who're also on Judiciary.

-- PROCESS, PROCESS, PROCESS: Watch for Republicans to complain lots about what they contemplate an unjust course of. They’ll speak about documents they didn’t get and the lack for them to talk to reality witnesses, and, when it comes time, they’ll search to discredit the SCHIFF REPORT as being part of what they contemplate a damaged process.

-- COLLINS WILL TALK TO THE PRESS: NUNES has an virtually blanket rule that he won't converse to most reporters. COLLINS is predicted to gaggle ceaselessly, as he did during the Robert Mueller course of.

-- REPUBLICANS WILL RELY ON LAWMAKERS MORE THAN COUNSEL: Collins anticipates utilizing professional employees, but in addition look for an lively dose of member participation.

-- DON’T EXPECT FIREWORKS: Intel set a excessive bar -- Fiona Hill and the other witnesses have been explosive. But Republican Judiciary insiders make this level: Judiciary’s witnesses will not be going to be reality witnesses with firsthand information of the problems at hand, they usually anticipate them to be a bit uninteresting. Working example: Wednesday’s listening to is a little bit of a tutorial exercise, with professors lining as much as talk about the finer authorized factors of impeachment and high crimes and misdemeanors. Even the professors the Democrats referred to as weren't household names to most individuals outdoors the legal group.

-- The witnesses: Noah Feldman of Harvard Regulation, Pamela S. Karlan of Stanford, Michael J. Gerhardt of UNC and Jonathan Turley of GW. Republicans referred to as Turley.

INTEL ISN’T DONE YET … SCHIFF to MSNBC’s RACHEL MADDOW on Monday night time: “Even while Judiciary does its work, we'll proceed investigating. We’re persevering with to situation subpoenas. We’re continuing to study new info. That work goes on.”

COMING ATTRACTIONS … NYT’s NICK FANDOS: “Home Democrats pressed forward on Monday with the subsequent part of their impeachment inquiry, putting the ultimate touches on an Intelligence Committee report anticipated to type the idea of their case that President Trump’s effort to strain Ukraine to announce investigations of his political rivals was an abuse of energy that warrants his removing from workplace.

“Lawmakers from the panel reviewed the staff-written report for the primary time on Monday night, forward of its public launch and a scheduled Tuesday evening vote to transmit it to the Judiciary Committee. It can conclude that Mr. Trump, working with allies inside and out of doors his administration, used the facility of his workplace to strain Ukraine to do his bidding as a way to achieve an benefit in the 2020 presidential race.” NYT

THE MINORITY REPORT … “Republicans launch impeachment rebuttal ahead of Judiciary hearing,” by Andrew Desiderio, Melanie Zanona and Kyle Cheney

OF INTEREST TO SCHIFF & CO. … NYT’S ANDREW KRAMER in Kyiv: “Ukraine Knew of Assist Freeze in July, Says Ex-Prime Official in Kyiv”: “As deputy overseas minister, it was Olena Zerkal’s job to learn incoming diplomatic cables from embassies around the globe. One from Washington caught her eye again in July, she recalled: It stated the Trump administration had frozen army help for Ukraine. ‘We had this info,’ Ms. Zerkal stated in an interview. ‘It was undoubtedly talked about there were some points.’” NYT

Good Wednesday morning. NEW … Speaker NANCY PELOSI will sit down with ANNA for a keynote conversation every week from in the present day at the 2019 Ladies Rule Summit in D.C. There are still a number of remaining seats for the Dec. 10 occasion. Request your ticket here … The full agenda

MAIN JUSTICE VS. ITSELF … WAPO’S DEVLIN BARRETT and KAROUN DEMIRJIAN: “Barr disputes key inspector general finding about FBI’s Russia investigation”: “Lawyer Common William P. Barr has advised associates he disagrees with the Justice Division’s inspector common on one of the key findings in an upcoming report -- that the FBI had enough info in July 2016 to justify launching an investigation into members of the Trump marketing campaign, based on individuals conversant in the matter.

“The Justice Division’s inspector basic, Michael Horo­witz, is due to launch his long-awaited findings in a week, but behind the scenes on the Justice Department, disagreement has surfaced about certainly one of Horowitz’s central conclusions on the origins of the Russia investigation. The discord could possibly be the prelude to a serious fissure inside federal regulation enforcement on the controversial question of investigating a presidential campaign.”

-- NYT adds: “Mr. Barr has privately praised Mr. Horowitz for his work and has not made clear whether or not he will publicly disagree with the report. It is commonplace apply for the Justice Division to undergo the inspector common a written response to his findings, which is then included in the last assessment. Mr. Barr might use that chance to challenge a proper rebuttal, or he might make a public assertion of some other type.”

TRADE POLITICS … “Trump conquers Republicans on commerce,” by Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine: “President Donald Trump is profitable at the very least one trade conflict: The one together with his own celebration. Free-trading Republicans have feuded with the president for years now, and his choice on Monday to reimpose tariffs on Brazil and Argentina introduced new criticism from GOP senators — right as he needs them to fend off the impeachment inquiry threatens his presidency.

“But regardless of the complaints from Senate Republicans that Trump is eroding his get together’s free trade bona fides, the GOP seemingly can’t — or gained’t — rally the votes to handcuff the president. Competing proposals that may give Congress more sway over certain tariffs have been languishing in the Senate Finance Committee, leaving more establishment-minded Republicans little choice but to take a seat back and gripe and marvel what just hit them.” POLITICO

-- “Trump’s latest trade war: French champagne vs. Google taxes,” by Doug Palmer and Mark Scott

-- WSJ EDITORIAL BOARD: “Mount Tariff Erupts Again: Trump hurts his re-election possibilities with extra trade uncertainty”

2020 WATCH …

-- BIDEN ON FIRE … NATASHA KORECKI in Emmetsburg, Iowa: “Biden says he doesn’t need Obama’s endorsement”: “Former Vice President Joe Biden on Monday stated he didn’t need Barack Obama’s endorsement within the Democratic main, even when the area have been down to 3 individuals. He also scoffed at the notion that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is constructing enthusiasm and accused Mayor Pete Buttigieg of stealing his plans.

“In a wide-ranging interview aboard his campaign bus during an eight-day tour by way of Iowa, Biden talked to reporters about his prospects in Iowa, the possible power of his marketing campaign going into Tremendous Tuesday and his relationship with the former president.

“Biden reiterated that he requested Obama not to endorse him, and he caught by that stance even when requested whether he’d need Obama’s backing if the sector narrowed to 3 individuals. ‘No, as a result of everyone is aware of I’m close with him,’ Biden stated. ‘I don’t want an Obama endorsement.’” POLITICO

-- “Buttigieg tries to reset struggling outreach to black voters,” by Elena Schneider in Allendale, S.C.: “Having failed to realize traction with African American voters up to now this marketing campaign, Buttigieg’s marketing campaign is taking a unique strategy to his three-day swing by means of South Carolina: Hold it small. The South Bend, Ind., mayor opted for largely invitation-only roundtables and private sit-downs with African American leaders in the state, where the Democratic citizens is majority-black.

“It’s a strikingly totally different strategy to the one Buttigieg takes in the first two early states, the place he has surged into a gaggle of four frontrunners in current polling — and the place he has seven public city halls scheduled over 4 days later this week, for example. But as Buttigieg tries to interrupt in with African American voters, he’s leaning on ‘very, very intimate’ settings, stated Matt Bowman, who hosted Buttigieg at his vineyard in Round O, S.C., for a dialog on black entrepreneurship with two dozen individuals.” POLITICO

TRUMP’S TUESDAY -- The president participated in a one-on-one assembly and later had breakfast with Stoltenberg in London. He will depart Winfield House at 11 a.m. native time for the InterContinental London Park Lane, the place he will take part in a roundtable with supporters. Afterward, Trump will return to Winfield Home. He will participate in a restricted bilateral assembly after which an expanded bilateral assembly with Macron at 2 p.m. Trump will meet with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau at three:30 p.m.

TRUMP and first woman MELANIA TRUMP will depart Winfield Home at Four:55 p.m en route to Clarence Home. They'll have tea at 5:15 p.m. with the prince of Wales and the duchess of Cornwall. Afterward, they may head to Buckingham Palace, the place they'll attend a NATO reception hosted by Queen Elizabeth. The two will depart for No. 10 Downing Road at 7:35 p.m. and attend a NATO leaders’ reception hosted by Johnson. Afterward, they may return to Winfield House.

CLICKER … POLITICO EUROPE: “The 28 people shaping, shaking and stirring Europe”

FROM RUSSIAGATE WITH LOVE … TAKEAWAYS FROM BUZZFEED’S JASON LEOPOLD ET AL: “Right here Are The Latest Secret Memos From Mueller’s Report”: “Michael Cohen stated Trump family legal professionals stored him from telling the reality. … In February 2017, Trump needed Comey to know ‘I really like him.’ … Christie laughed when Trump stated ‘the Russia thing is over’ after Michael Flynn left workplace … Hope Hicks stated Trump was ‘indignant, stunned, and annoyed’ when Mueller was appointed … Hicks believed that Obama's warning about Michael Flynn ‘sat with’ Trump … Hicks informed the FBI she was ‘shocked’ by emails about the Trump Tower assembly.” BuzzFeed

-- SCOOP … NATASHA BERTRAND: “Senate panel look into Ukraine interference comes up short”

MEGATRENDS -- “U.S. Dominance in International Providers Weakens,” by WSJ’s Paul Kiernan: “Exports of providers barely rose in the first 9 months of 2019, whereas imports rose 5.5%, the Commerce Division stated.

“The providers surplus, at $178.5 billion by means of September, was down 10% from a yr earlier, on pace for its steepest annual decline since 2003. October knowledge are due out Thursday.

“The providers pullback is critical because within the last half-century the U.S. has advanced from an industrial superpower into the undisputed champion of the global providers financial system. From 2003 to 2015, the U.S. commerce surplus in providers such as medical care, greater schooling, royalties and funds processing almost sextupled to $263.3 billion.” WSJ

-- NYT: “Watch 4 Decades of Inequality Drive American Cities Apart”

MEDIAWATCH -- “Giuliani Threatens to Sue Fox News Host for Calling Him Part of the ‘Swamp,’” by The Every day Beast’s Andrew Kirell

-- Chris Bedford will probably be senior editor at The Federalist. He beforehand was editor-in-chief at The Every day Caller News Foundation.

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

TRANSITIONS -- Michael Moran has rejoined Credit Suisse as head of U.S. coverage. He previously was head of federal affairs for Zurich North America. … Loryn Wilson Carter is now director of communications and media on the Raben Group. She most lately was a senior strategist at Meridian Options and is an NAACP and Middle for Group Change alum.

BIRTHWEEK (was Saturday): Amijah Townsend-Holmes of the Joe Biden marketing campaign’s comms staff, who celebrated with a trip to New Orleans (h/t Andrew Bates)

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Mike Inacay, comms director for Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii). A development that he thinks deserves extra attention: “Due to the exhausting work of leaders and activists from all over the world, we’re seeing more attention on the pressing want for climate motion, however the full scope of its impression continues to be extensively underreported. Climate change is hurting every group and every business in every a part of the world.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas) is 84 … Robby Mook, senior fellow on the Kennedy Faculty and president of Home Majority PAC … Tom Oppel (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) … Ali Zelenko, SVP for comms at NBC News … Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is 69 … WaPo’s Scott Higham … Cody Sanders of the White Home … POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie and Thomas Good … Bill Sternberg, editorial web page editor at USA Right now, is 63 … Jesse Lee is 4-0 … Jamie Carroll … Margaret Mulkerrin … Diane Cardwell … Kevin Baron, government editor of Defense One … Lance Trover, advisor at Tusk Methods … Invoice Tighe, VP of federal authorities affairs on the National Association of Chain Drug Shops, is 42 … Meg Hilling …

… Laura Howard of Sentinel Strategic Advisors … Robert Pondiscio … Katelyn Rieley Johnson … Jacqueline Quasney … Lizzie Edelman, managing companion at E:SIX Strategies … Missy Jenkins ... former Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Ohio) is 61 … former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) is 49 ... Daniel Chao, COS for Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Calif.) ... Sara Elnusairi … Danielle Filson ... Mandi Critchfield, communications director for the Senate Banking Committee ... Neal Ungerleider ... David Meyers, publisher and government editor at The Fulcrum ... Colin Hanna ... Chris Kelaher ... Wealthy McFadden ... Miles Doran, producer for “CBS This Morning” ... John Toohey

Article initially revealed on POLITICO Magazine

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