POLITICO Playbook: Did Trump just threaten a shutdown over impeachment?

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP simply made this month rather more … fascinating. Speaking on the South Garden on Sunday, the president left the door open to a authorities shutdown in 17 days. First, he stated “no, no, no” when requested if he would shut down the authorities as a result of he's being impeached. Then he stated, “It is dependent upon -- it is determined by what the negotiation -- I wouldn’t decide to anything. It is determined by what the negotiation is.”

REMEMBER: The government shutdown date is Nov. 21 -- Congress’ final day in session before the Thanksgiving break. Congress will revolt on the concept of a shutdown, and Democrats are by no means going to relent on impeachment due to a funding disaster. Some within the Capitol consider they will override the president’s veto of a spending bill. For sure, if the president is toying with a shutdown in his mind, this month won't be on autopilot as some may think.

IMPEACHMENT TODAY: The House is out, but 4 witnesses are scheduled for depositions as we speak. All of them -- OMB’s Robert Blair and Brian McCormack, and the NSC’s John Eisenberg and Michael Ellis -- are expected to skip their meetings with the impeachment investigators. (hat tip: Andrew Desiderio)

THIS WEEK: Democrats are signaling that they’ll launch the transcripts of the depositions carried out up to now. On Sunday night time, Trump alleged that Democrats may manipulate these data for political functions. As Kyle Cheney defined, this is implausible: Not only have been Republicans in the room for these encounters, however witnesses are also capable of return to verify and log off on the data.

THE FIREFIGHTER IN CHIEF ... L.A. TIMES: “As wildfires burn across California, President Trump lashes out at the state on Twitter,” by James Rainey: “Autumn in California now comes not solely with fierce, wind-driven wildfires but with routine claims from President Trump that the state’s leaders are accountable for the disasters, adopted by assurances from specialists that the president doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

“The cycle renewed once more Sunday, when Trump tweeted that Gov. Gavin Newsom and U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) had did not correctly handle the state’s forests, inflicting a string of current blazes.

“Newsom ‘has executed a terrible job of forest administration. I advised him from the primary day we met that he must ‘clean’ his forest flooring no matter what his bosses, the environmentalists, DEMAND of him. Should additionally do burns and minimize hearth stoppers,’ Trump stated in an early-morning missive on Twitter.

“A couple of hours later he concluded a slam on Democrats for their impeachment inquiry towards him, concluding, ‘Corrupt Adam ought to clear up & handle the California forests that are all the time burning!’” LAT

WHAT TRUMP IS FIXATED ON -- “Trump inches nearer to outing purported whistleblower,” by Rishika Dugyala and Sarah Ferris: “President Donald Trump on Sunday reiterated his calls to reveal the identify of the whistleblower behind the grievance that led to the Home’s formal impeachment inquiry, mentioning unconfirmed studies concerning the individual’s id and potential ties to the previous administration.

“Trump sought to discredit the whistleblower, linking the individual to his Democratic predecessor, President Barack Obama, as well as former CIA director John Brennan and former national safety adviser Susan Rice — two of Obama’s prime aides.

“‘There have have been tales written a few sure particular person, a male, they usually say he’s the whistleblower,’ Trump advised reporters outdoors the White Home. ‘If he’s the whistleblower, he has no credibility because he’s a Brennan man, he’s a Susan Rice man, he’s an Obama guy. And he hates Trump.’ ‘Now, perhaps it’s not him. But when it’s him, you guys should launch the knowledge,’ the president added.” POLITICO

-- “Trump's impeachment inbox,” by Daniel Lippman: “President Trump doesn’t assume Home Democrats’ impeachment inquiry ought to get any media protection.

“Meanwhile, he’s ravenously consuming news concerning the subject — primarily by means of a pleasant lens. From the Oval Workplace to the White House residence to Air Drive One, he’s intently monitoring how Republican members of Congress are digesting the newest revelations on his dealing with of Ukraine, and monitoring their statements for any signal of hesitation or perceived disloyalty.” POLITICO

CLIP AND SAVE -- “Your guide to a year of Trump legal landmines,” by Darren Samuelsohn and Josh Gerstein

Good Monday morning.

NEW … WSJ’S MIKE BENDER is writing a ebook. “Selling Trump: The Inside Story of the 2020 Re-Election Marketing campaign” will give “an unprecedented take a look at the enterprise of presidential campaigns and the advertising of Donald Trump’s political model, going behind the scenes on key selections for the Trump workforce during the 2016 and 2020 elections.” Matt Latimer and Keith Urbahn of Javelin represented Bender. Sean Desmond will edit the ebook for Twelve Books.

THE NEXT FRONTIER OF THE CULTURE WARS? -- NYT’S JEREMY PETERS in Arlington, Va.: “A Conservative Push to Make Trans Youngsters and Faculty Sports the Next Battleground in the Tradition Conflict”: “From the 12th flooring of a glass office tower in the Washington suburbs, a marketing campaign to sway the governor’s race in Kentucky on Tuesday is being waged with an alarmist declare that has little to do with the race itself: If Democrats have their method, soon boys will have the ability to compete towards women in class sports.

“This state of affairs, introduced in a pair of advertisements which might be showing on pc screens and smartphones throughout Kentucky, is the work of a little-known group funded by anonymous donors referred to as the American Rules Challenge, which in recent times has targeted on preventing extra familiar clashes within the culture wars over same-sex marriage and abortion rights.

“The group is limiting its work to Kentucky for now, but strategists say it has greater ambitions. It is effectively operating a pilot program for the 2020 election that may assist it determine how it might use the talk over transgender rights to rally conservative voters in help of President Trump.

“The results might inform what sort of campaigns social conservatives run sooner or later — and reply whether the delicate and deeply personal questions around gender id are the subsequent main wedge difficulty in American politics or, as current expertise suggests, something that the majority voters and politicians would moderately not see politicized.” NYT

2020 WATCH … TEXAS TRIBUNE: “Democrats don’t have a candidate who would beat Trump in Texas immediately, poll finds,” by Ross Ramsey: “None of the prime Democrats in search of the presidential nomination would beat President Donald Trump in Texas in an election held at present — and neither would either of the Texas candidates in that race, in response to the newest College of Texas/Texas Tribune Ballot.

“Joe Biden of Delaware, the former vice chairman, is operating 7 proportion points behind Trump in Texas, as is U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont falls 5 proportion factors brief in a head-to-head with the president among Texas voters. And the two Texas candidates also lag behind Trump: former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso (who dropped out of the race Friday, after the ballot was accomplished) by 6 proportion factors, and former U.S. Housing Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro by 13 proportion points.” Texas Tribune

-- NYT’S KATE KELLY and LISA LERER: “As Warren Good points in Race, Wall Road Sounds the Alarm”: “[F]rom company boardrooms to breakfast meetings, investor conferences to charity galas, Ms. Warren’s rise in the Democratic main polls is rattling bankers, buyers and their prosperous shoppers, who see in the Massachusetts senator a formidable opponent who might injury not solely their business however their lifestyle. …

“Interviews with greater than two dozen hedge-fund managers, private-equity and bank officials, analysts and lobbyists made clear that Ms. Warren has stirred more alarm than some other Democratic candidate. (Senator Bernie Sanders, who describes himself as a socialist, can also be feared, however is taken into account less more likely to seize the nomination.) …

“‘Everyone is nervous,’ stated Steven Rattner, a outstanding Democratic donor who manages the wealth of Michael R. Bloomberg, the previous New York City mayor. ‘What scares the hell out of me is the best way she would basically change our free-enterprise system.’” NYT

WAPO: “Sanders, Warren seek to clarify their differences as the fight for Democratic left intensifies,” by Chelsea Janes, Sean Sullivan and Isaac Stanley-Becker

TRUMP’S MONDAY -- The president will meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at 11:45 a.m. within the Oval Office. He will host the 2019 World Collection Champions, the Washington Nationals, at 1:30 p.m. on the South Garden. Trump will depart the White Home at Four:10 p.m. en path to Lexington, Ky., where he will converse at a marketing campaign rally at Rupp Area at 7 p.m. Afterward, the president will return to Washington.

BOSTON GLOBE: “‘I’m going to have to end up leaving my own country’: How Trump’s travel ban affects one family,” by Zoe Greenberg in Montreal

BACKSTORY -- “Inside Ukraine’s Push to Cultivate Trump From the Begin,” by NYT’s Mark Mazzetti, Eric Lipton and Andrew Kramer: “Petro O. Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president till Might, waged an elaborate marketing campaign to win over Mr. Trump at a time when advisers had convinced Mr. Trump that Ukraine was a nest of Hillary Clinton supporters.

“Mr. Poroshenko’s campaign included commerce deals that have been politically expedient for Mr. Trump, conferences with Rudolph W. Giuliani, the freezing of probably damaging felony instances and attempts to use the previous Trump marketing campaign chairman Paul Manafort as a again channel.

“From the beginning, Mr. Poroshenko’s aides additionally scrambled to seek out ways to flatter the brand new American president — advising their boss to gush throughout his first phone name with Mr. Trump about Tom Brady, the star New England Patriots quarterback whom Mr. Trump has long admired.” NYT

WE’LL ALWAYS HAVE PARIS … AP’S SETH BORENSTEIN : “For greater than two years President Donald Trump has talked about pulling america out of the landmark Paris climate settlement. Beginning Monday he lastly can do one thing about it.

“Even then, although, the withdrawal process takes a yr and wouldn’t grow to be official until at the very least the day after the 2020 presidential election.” AP

WHAT THE LEFT IS ARGUING ABOUT -- “Can Warren Truly Keep away from Taxing the Middle Class?” by The Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein: “The most important query surrounding Elizabeth Warren’s new Medicare for All plan isn’t whether or not she has produced a believable pathway to elevating $20.5 trillion over the next decade to fund it.

“Somewhat, the most important query is whether $20.5 trillion is truly a believable estimate of how a lot her plan would value.

“Warren’s estimate is significantly lower than most projections for a single-payer system, as her staff acknowledged in its personal evaluation of the plan. Even at a flat $20 trillion, such a plan would value more than the federal government now spends on Social Security alone or on Medicare and Medicaid combined. Estimates from the nonpartisan Rand Corporation, the conservative-leaning Mercatus Middle at George Mason University, and the center-left Urban Institute have every placed the 10-year value of a single-payer plan at $31 trillion to $34 trillion.” Atlantic

FOR YOUR RADAR -- “Protesters Assault Iranian Consulate in Iraqi City,” by WSJ’s Sune Engel Rasmussen in Erbil, Iraq, and Ghassan Adnan in Baghdad: “Iraqi protesters attacked the Iranian consulate in the city of Karbala, within the latest sign of mounting anger towards Tehran’s involvement within the nation’s affairs.

“Protesters scaled the consulate’s walls late Sunday while hauling an Iraqi flag. Safety forces fired rubber bullets to disperse protesters who have been throwing Molotov cocktails over the wall, video footage witnesses offered to The Wall Road Journal showed.” WSJ

-- IRONY: This is occurring as Iran commemorates the 40th anniversary of the 1979 takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, per AP.

MEDIAWATCH -- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Michelle Kosinski has left CNN, the place she was senior diplomatic correspondent. She was a overseas correspondent at NBC before CNN. A CNN supply stated that her contract is up, and she or he decided to go away to do other issues. When requested why she left, she advised Playbook: “I’ve been at CNN for six years. It’s time.” She was just lately spotted at ABC in New York. ABC didn’t reply to a request for comment. (h/t Daniel Lippman)

Ship tricks to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

SPOTTED: Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) at Cielo Rojo in Takoma Park, Md., for breakfast Sunday morning.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Ben Smith, BuzzFeed editor-in-chief. What he’s been studying lately: “I simply finished ‘Advise and Consent,’ which was on the bestseller listing for 95 weeks starting in 1959 and is now principally forgotten (h/t Jamie Kirchick). It’s a pure Washington novel that facilities on a high-stakes affirmation listening to, and feels both totally related at present and unimaginable within the extent to which establishmentarian D.C. traditions have been swept aside, for good and sick.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Laura Bush is 73 … Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) is 72 … Rep. Carol Miller (R-W.Va.) is 69 (h/t Michael Chirico) … Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) is 48 … Avi Berkowitz … Jeremy Bernard ... Package Seelye … Blair Latoff Holmes … Craig Stevens … Ashley Estes Kavanaugh … Rima Sirota of the Georgetown College Regulation Middle (h/t Jon Haber) … Michael Fontneau is 35 … Alice Tong … POLITICO’s Gabby Orr, Amanda Eisenberg and Liz Davidson … WaPo’s Mike DeBonis … Eric Wagner of Bloomberg Authorities … AP’s Alex Sanz … WTOP’s Hillary Howard … Will Shaw ... Michael Clauser ... Emma Kenyon ... Laylee Ghiasi ... Jessica Reis, senior director at Bully Pulpit Interactive, is 36 (h/t Anthony DeAngelo) …

… Ken Weinstein, president and CEO of the Hudson Institute, is 58 … Max Gleischman, SVP at Breakwater Strategy (h/t wife Rachel Racusen) … Rick Ungar is 69 … Casey Martel of International Automakers (h/t Benjamin Decatur) … Darla Bunting … Amanda Thayer … Julie Siegel, senior counsel for financial coverage for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) ... Jean Roseme … Katie Hughes ... Tim Saler ... Ezra Mechaber ... Florencia Iriondo ... Lucy Tutwiler Hodas … Kevin McVicker ... Trish Turner … Michael Hough is Four-0 ... Aaron White … WSJ’s Elena Chiriboga … Morgan Mohr ... Kari Kant … Jeremy Chwat is 45 … Jared Kleinstein … Edward Luttwak … Massachusetts state Rep. Ken Gordon … Hal Malchow … Julie Tippens … Casey Sinnwell (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) … Lynde Uihlein ... Susan Knapp ... Jacques Haeringer

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