POLITICO Playbook: Why holding the impeachment articles might not matter

HAPPY NEW YEAR, and due to Blake for filling in the previous couple of days. Welcome to an election yr.

HERE’S A LITTLE BIT OF FOOD FOR THOUGHT: What if it doesn’t matter if Speaker NANCY PELOSI sends over the impeachment articles?

SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL can truly conduct an impeachment trial even when Pelosi never sends the articles, ought to he select, many individuals within the Capitol and legal group consider. Congress returns subsequent week.

ELI HONIG, a former federal prosecutor and CNN analyst, described it this manner when Jake appeared with him on SiriusXM the different day: The Constitution stipulates different situations when issues have to be “transmitted” to the Senate -- such because the ratified results of the electoral school vote. It by no means says anything like that relating to impeachment. So, McConnell can maintain a trial without the articles. The majority chief has been mum about his intentions up to now, but has stated that impeachment will lead to acquittal -- one thing almost all Capitol watchers consider.

HERE’S WHAT YOU SHOULD WATCH for in the coming weeks: The senators who have expressed some degree of discomfort with the impeachment course of and McConnell haven't laid out firm demands. If they say one thing like, “We'll oppose the principles for any impeachment trial that doesn’t embrace X,” that might be something you must pay attention to. Discomfort is a sense, not a technique or demand.

CASH DASH … 4Q FUNDRAISING HAULS: TRUMP: $46 million, $102.7 million available … SANDERS: $34.5 million … YANG: $16.5 million

Good Thursday morning.

DUE IN DAVOS this yr: Jared and Ivanka. The U.S. delegation also consists of: “Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao and Commerce Representative Robert Lighthizer” + “Keith Krach, undersecretary of State, and Christopher Liddell, assistant to the president, may even be there Jan. 20-24.”

MARKETWATCH -- WSJ: “Global Stocks Launch Higher After Chinese Easing Move,” by Caitlin Ostroff: “International inventory markets obtained off to a robust start on the primary trading day of the yr after China’s central bank introduced a recent dose of monetary policy easing.”

FOGGY BOTTOM READS …

-- WAPO: “Supporters of Iranian-backed militia finish siege of U.S. Embassy in Baghdad,” by Mustafa Salim in Baghdad and Liz Sly in Beirut: “The siege by supporters of an Iranian-backed militia on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad ended Wednesday after the militia ordered them to withdraw, bringing aid to the diplomats trapped inside and averting a potential showdown between the United States and Iran.

“Supporters of the Kataib Hezbollah militia who had spent the night time camped outdoors the embassy dismantled their tents and marched out of the world, saying they might as an alternative continue to press for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq in the nation’s parliament.

“‘Yay! We burned them!’ they chanted as they headed away from the embassy, a reference to the fires set by the demonstrators that charred two embassy reception areas Tuesday.

“The retreat signaled an finish to a disaster through which hundreds of indignant militia supporters tried to storm the embassy Tuesday, protesting the deaths of 25 militia members in U.S. airstrikes Sunday. Those strikes have been carried out in retaliation for the demise of a U.S. contractor in a rocket assault the U.S. army blamed on Kataib Hezbollah.” WaPo

-- NYT, A1 … BIG SWING FROM DAVID SANGER: “Trump Bet He Could Isolate Iran and Charm North Korea. It’s Not That Easy”: “President Trump entered the new yr dealing with flare-ups of long-burning crises with two previous adversaries — Iran and North Korea — which might be instantly difficult his declare to have reasserted American power around the globe.

“While the Iranian-backed attack on america Embassy in Baghdad appeared to be underneath control, it played to Mr. Trump’s longtime fear that American diplomats and troops within the Center East are straightforward targets and his longtime place that the United States should pull again from the area.

“In North Korea, Kim Jong-un’s declaration on Wednesday that the world would ‘witness a brand new strategic weapon’ appeared to be the top of an 18-month experiment through which Mr. Trump believed his pressure of character — and obscure promises of financial improvement — would wipe away an issue that plagued the last 12 of his predecessors. The timing of these new challenges is important: Each the Iranians and the North Koreans seem to sense the vulnerability of a president underneath impeachment and dealing with re-election, even when they're typically clumsy as they attempt to play those events to their benefit.”

-- AP: “Baghdad embassy assault prompts Pompeo to delay Ukraine go to”: “Pompeo was to arrive in Ukraine late Thursday in his first go to to the country on the middle of President Donald Trump’s impeachment, then on to Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Cyprus.

“He delayed the journey ‘to proceed monitoring the continued state of affairs in Iraq and ensure the security and safety of People in the Middle East,’ State Division spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus stated Wednesday. She stated he intends to reschedule quickly.” AP

LIVE FROM PRISON, IT’S BLAGO! …. CHICAGO TRIBUNE’S ELVIA MALAGÓN: “In apparent appeal to President Trump, imprisoned Rod Blagojevich argues today’s Democrats would have impeached Abraham Lincoln”

2020 WATCH …

-- “‘We’re busy’: Sanders gets cold shoulder from New Hampshire unions,” by Trent Spiner in Concord: “The labor unions that powered Bernie Sanders to a decisive victory here in 2016 are declining to get on board his campaign this time around — a possible warning sign for the neighbor-state senator’s hopes of a repeat efficiency.

“One of the largest labor groups, which represents extra than 10,000 New Hampshire state staff, broke with its nationwide leadership when it issued an early endorsement of Sanders within the 2016 main. Electrical staff joined a coalition of different unions to turbocharge the Sanders turnout operation that yr.

“Now, each organizations are remaining on the sidelines, refusing to select a single candidate when a number of would go well with them positive. Sanders is going to nice lengths to lure their help — his marketing campaign lately provided a free steak dinner to union members and hosted a rally for state staff who're preventing for a new contract. However nothing has moved the needle.

“‘There's a number of candidates speaking about what he talked about last time,’ stated Rich Gulla, the president of SEIU 1984, which represents the state’s staff. ‘Take a look at the area and take a look at the polling. I might speak to a dozen totally different members and get a dozen totally different responses on who they like. There's just too many in the area proper now to slender that down.’” POLITICO

-- “Looking for an edge, Klobuchar chases Trump voters,” by Trent Spiner in Gorham, N.H.

-- “Bloomberg’s business in China has grown. That could create unprecedented entanglements if he is elected president,” by WaPo’s Michael Kranish

TRUMP’S THURSDAY -- The president has nothing on his public schedule.

VIEW FROM THE C SUITE -- “Recession Rises on Listing of CEO Fears for 2020,” by WSJ’s Rachel Feintzeig: “U.S. chief executives are getting nervous a few recession.

“Worry of an financial decline topped the listing of their considerations going into 2020, based on a survey from the Conference Board, a enterprise analysis group. The yr prior, recession fears ranked third for U.S. chiefs, though first general for CEOs all over the world—as is once more the case for 2020. Going into 2018, the subject was barely a blip in the survey knowledge.

“Last yr, progress in gross home product globally slipped to 2.3% from Three% in 2018, and executives felt the strain, stated Bart van Ark, chief economist at the Conference Board. Uncertainty around a number of points, from commerce to local weather change, has exacerbated their nervousness. ...

“The Convention Board tasks that international progress will speed up slightly this yr to 2.5%. The group’s report accompanying the CEO survey warned that government fears, justified or not, can have consequences for the financial system.” WSJ

BEYOND THE BELTWAY -- L.A. TIMES: “In newly blue Orange County, Democrats struggle over how far left is too far,” by Gustavo Arellano

INFERNO UPDATE -- “Hundreds flee Australia’s coastal towns as raging wildfires close in,” by WaPo’s A. Odysseus Patrick in Sanctuary Level, Australia: “An Australian navy troop service was getting ready to evacuate up to four,000 individuals trapped in a remote region of Victoria state by advancing wildfires which have consumed an space virtually the dimensions of West Virginia.

“The state of affairs in Mallacoota — a seashore city fashionable with families over the holiday season — is so dire that officers spent Thursday afternoon assessing who can be able to climbing ladders from small boats to a navy ship anchored offshore, designed to hold 300 troopers and 23 tanks.

“Those unable to climb the ladders and wishing to go away shall be flown out by helicopter, although heavy smoke that has reached so far as New Zealand is making flying hazardous.” WaPo

-- THE LOCAL POLITICAL TAKE: “People are looking for someone to blame and right now the PM's in their sights,” by Chris O’Keefe within the usually centrist Sydney Morning Herald

MEDIAWATCH -- California’s new privateness regulation is now in impact. Here’s a primer from CNN’s Kerry Flynn.

-- THE NEWSEUM IS DEAD, however its fashionable online function “Today’s Front Pages” is alive.

Ship tricks to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

SPOTTED at a New Yr’s Day brunch Wednesday at the house of Jonathan Silver and Melissa Moss: Tom Nides and Virginia Moseley, Antony Blinken and Evan Ryan, Stephanie Cutter, Roxanne Roberts, Gail MacKinnon, Margaret Carlson, Cathie Williams, Donald Graham, Capricia Marshall, Ruth Marcus, Gary Knell, Tamera Luzzatto and David Leiter, Jane Mayer and Bill Hamilton, Carol Melton, Shelby Coffey, Gordon Peterson and Anne Fleming.

TRANSITION -- Ashley Chang is now director of program affect on the Rockefeller Foundation. She previously was head of communications for Renewvia Power and is a former Obama appointee.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Max Bluestein, DHS deputy press secretary, and Valerie Bluestein, a Bethesda actual property agent with Heller Coley Reed, welcomed Brody Lev Bluestein on Monday, Dec. 30. Pic … Another pic

BIRTHWEEK (was Wednesday): Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.) is 46 (h/t Andrew Wright)

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Annie Lewis, head of North America government, politics and advocacy advertising at Facebook. Some fascinating books she’s been studying: “I’ve just finished ‘The Likeability Trap’ by the superb Alicia Menendez. Alicia examines the conflicting dynamics of likeability and authenticity in the workplace -- methods to stability being ourselves, eager to be favored, whereas also being taken critically. For royal historical past aficionados, ‘The Quest for Queen Mary’ was one other favorite 2019 read -- an eclectic set of notes and zany observations from her official biographer’s research into her life, lots of which could not be included within the relatively staid official biography.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Mike Sozan, senior fellow at CAP, is 51 … Judy Miller ... Greg Mueller, president of CRC Public Relations … Erin Hughes, managing director at DCI Group ... POLITICO’s Mike Zapler and Masango Ngole Ngeh … Will Jawando ... NBC’s Cyrus Farivar ... Lindsey Ross ... Michael Webb is 54 ... Christi Layman ... Chris Hartline is 3-0 ... Stephanie Woodrow … Rachel Perrone … former Rep. Henry Bonilla (R-Texas) is 66 ... Jessica Cameron ... Cheyenne Foster, federal affairs specialist at Koch Industries ... Annie Starke, affiliate and coverage adviser at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck ...

… John Thornton, government chairman of Barrick Gold … James Tisch, CEO of Loews Corp., is 67 … Robert Wexler, president of the S. Daniel Abraham Middle for Middle East Peace, is 59 … NYT’s Annie Tressler (h/t Jordan Cohen) … Scott Cullinane … APCO Worldwide’s Marc Johnson … Anna Wishart is 35 … John Bedford Lloyd is 64 … Lizzie Langer ... Rachel Hicks, director of federal affairs and PAC at American Beverage Affiliation ... Jane Krause ... Kelly Schulz ... Douglas Faulkner … Alexa Barchuk ... Faridon Abbas … Linda Gaumer … Craig Varoga (h/t Teresa Vilmain) … Kyle Gazis, a litigation affiliate at Davis Polk & Wardwell’s Washington workplace

Article originally revealed on POLITICO Magazine

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