POLITICO Playbook: Trump just made his most consequential decision as president

THE U.S. HAS KILLED QASSEM SOLEIMANI, the mastermind of Iran’s technique of uneven army and political conflict in the Center East. Soleimani was meeting his Iraqi allies at the Baghdad airport, the place his convoy was on the receiving end of American airstrikes of some sort.

TO STATE THE OBVIOUS, this can be a massively consequential determination by President DONALD TRUMP that would shade the the rest of his presidency, shake up the 2020 campaign and reshape the Center East for many years. It’s an enormous deal.

THE PENTAGON’S STATEMENT saying duty lays out a legal and nationwide security rationale that certainly can be hotly debated in the coming hours and days: This was essential to forestall imminent threats to People, and it was approved because Soleimani headed a delegated terrorist group.

“AT THE DIRECTION OF THE PRESIDENT, the U.S. army has taken decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel overseas by killing Qasem Soleimani, the top of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Drive, a U.S.-designated Overseas Terrorist Organization,” the statement reads. “Common Soleimani was actively creating plans to attack American diplomats and repair members in Iraq and all through the region.”

HERE’S HOW the NYT described the potential impression: “Common Suleimani was the architect of almost each vital operation by Iranian intelligence and army forces over the past 20 years, and his demise was a staggering blow for Iran at a time of sweeping geopolitical battle.”

THERE IS NO DOUBT this can be a large gamble, as our colleagues Nahal Toosi, Daniel Lippman and Wesley Morgan lay out in this piece. Few are mourning the dying of Soleimani, but many are questioning about what may come next. Will Iran search to strike again at U.S. interests in the region or inside the homeland? Tehran is already vowing revenge.

AND, THE LARGER QUESTION for Washington that TRUMP and his administration should confront is that this: What is the bigger strategy? Administration officials informed us this morning that the strategy is to get Iran back to the negotiating table by means of defensive actions.

-- THE PRESIDENT this morning at 7:44 a.m.: “Iran never gained a warfare, however by no means misplaced a negotiation!”

FURTHERMORE, Congress is already wondering why it was left in the dead of night -- many members have been informed after the attack, and before the assertion came out confirming his dying. Does Congress want to think about a brand new Authorization for Use of Army Pressure, one thing it has talked lots about but has been scared to do for more than a decade?

WHAT MIKE POMPEO IS SAYING: “WE DON’T SEEK WAR with Iran,” the secretary of State stated on Fox Information’ “Fox and Pals.” … POMPEO on CNN’s “New Day” stated that SOLEIMANI was planning an imminent attack that would’ve killed dozens if not tons of of lives. He stated the menace was in the region, not the U.S. homeland.

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) on “Fox and Buddies” on Iran: “THEY WILL NOT LET THIS go unanswered.”

-- FWIW: Graham stated he was briefed on the operation when he was in Florida just lately.

WHO SOLEIMANI WAS, in line with Ali Soufan’s analysis in West Level’s counterterrorism journal: “Though revered in his residence country and feared on battlefields throughout the Middle East, Soleimani remains nearly unknown in the West. Yet to say that in the present day’s Iran cannot be absolutely understood with out first understanding Qassem Soleimani can be a considerable understatement. More than anybody else, Soleimani has been liable for the creation of an arc of influence … extending from the Gulf of Oman by means of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to the japanese shores of the Mediterranean Sea.”

-- THE NEW YORKER’S DEXTER FILKINS’ 2013 PROFILE: “The Shadow Commander”

MEET THE NEW GUY: Iran has already named Soleimani’s alternative. In line with the official Tasnim News Agency, it’s Gen. Esmail Qaani, who was tapped by Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the brand new head of the elite Quds Pressure. Qaani, who was Soleimani’s deputy, has been described as missing his former boss’ charisma but maybe making up for it considerably in hardened battlefield expertise.

ADVICE WORTH TAKING: The U.S. Embassy in Iraq issued a revised “security alert” for People caught in Baghdad or considering travel there. The steerage: “U.S. residents should depart by way of airline while attainable, and failing that, to different nations by way of land. … Do not journey to Iraq … Avoid the U.S. Embassy … Monitor native and worldwide media for updates.”

-- QUESTIONS ON THE LEFT … SEN. @ChrisMurphyCT: “Soleimani was an enemy of america. That’s not a query. The question is this - as stories recommend, did America simply assassinate, without any congressional authorization, the second strongest individual in Iran, knowingly setting off a potential large regional conflict?”

-- JOE BIDEN: “No American will mourn Qassem Soleimani’s passing. He deserved to be delivered to justice for his crimes towards American troops and hundreds of innocents throughout the region. He supported terror and sowed chaos. None of that negates the truth that this can be a extremely escalatory move in an already dangerous area. … President Trump just tossed a stick of dynamite into a tinderbox.” Full statement

-- PRAISE ON THE RIGHT … @SenTomCotton: “Qassem Soleimani masterminded Iran’s reign of terror for decades, including the deaths of a whole lot of People. Tonight, he received what he well-merited, and all these American troopers who died by his hand additionally acquired what they deserved: justice.”

-- CONGRESSIONAL REAX, by way of NYT’s Catie Edmondson

Good Friday morning.

THIS SEN. JOSH HAWLEY TWEET -- through which he says he will introduce a motion to dismiss the impeachment costs towards TRUMP -- caught hearth on Twitter on Thursday. Our sources inform us that shifting legislation to dump the fees is just not a practical technique in the intervening time -- however it does show the potential perils of the hold-the-articles strategy. This wouldn’t cross at this level -- it won't even make it to the floor -- but in a few weeks if the articles don’t end up in the Senate, this might achieve steam, our sources inform us.

NEW … FOR YOUR RADAR: Senate Majority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL and Senate Minority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER will each converse on the Senate flooring immediately. The floor opens at midday, so anticipate it around then.

HMMM … “Why Democrats say they may not vote to convict Trump,” by Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett: “Senate Democrats are anticipated to virtually unanimously declare President Donald Trump guilty on the end of his impeachment trial. However senators throughout the celebration’s spectrum insist they haven’t made up their thoughts.

“It’s a bid to entice a handful of Senate Republicans to hitch their push for brand spanking new documents and witnesses concerned within the president’s Ukraine scandal, notably those who have expressed dismay with Senate Majority Chief Mitch McConnell’s vow to coordinate intently with the White House.

“It’s also a long-shot attraction to Trump, who maintains he’s achieved nothing incorrect and had a ‘good’ call with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky when he asked for a probe of former Vice President Joe Biden.

“Trump has stated he needs to listen to from his personal array of witnesses in the trial. Democrats hope his efforts to clear himself translate to Republican senators agreeing to seek testimony from figures like appearing White House chief of employees Mick Mulvaney and former national security adviser John Bolton.” POLITICO

PREVIEW … GABBY ORR on TRUMP’S occasion at this time in Miami: “Trump works to avoid evangelical defections in 2020”

NEW … JOE BIDEN is cycling three new advertisements into his $four million Iowa advert purchase. It’s a six-figure purchase that may run within the Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Quad Cities and Sioux Metropolis media markets. The first ad is “Soul,” which reiterates Biden’s message that the material of American society will change if TRUMP has another four years in office. “Integrity” has testimonials from individuals about Biden’s character. Additionally they have a 15-second spot, “Enough,” which has a Des Moines firefighter praising Biden.

MORE 2020 …

-- WAPO’S JOSH DAWSEY and MICHELLE YE HEE LEE: “Trump and the RNC raised almost half a billion dollars last year — and still had nearly $200 million heading into 2020”

-- THE BIG MONEY PICTURE: “Dems rocket into 2020 with huge donor windfall,” by Maggie Severns and Holly Otterbein

-- “Klobuchar posts personal-best $11.4 million fundraising quarter,” by Elena Schneider

-- BERNIE VS. JOE … WAPO’S BOB COSTA in Des Moines: “Ascendant Bernie Sanders turns his focus to Joe Biden as Iowa nears”

-- TOM STEYER has hired Obama alum Jeff Berman as a senior strategic adviser. He will run delegate technique.

-- MARIANNE WILLIAMSON laid off her marketing campaign employees, however stated in a release that she’s not dropping out. “In the meantime, it’s superb what you can do with volunteers," she stated. OK.

-- UPDATE: In Thursday’s Playbook, we stated Andrew Yang’s marketing campaign raised $12.5 million within the fourth quarter. That determine is actually $16.5 million, in response to a release from the marketing campaign.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

TRUMP’S FRIDAY -- THE PRESIDENT will depart Mar-a-Lago at three:30 p.m. Japanese for Miami Government Airport, where he’ll land before heading to King Jesus International Ministry. At 5 p.m., he'll converse there for the launch of the “Evangelicals for Trump Coalition.” At 6:15 p.m., he’ll head back to the airport to fly again to Mar-a-Lago.

WSJ’S BRODY MULLINS: “When the Party’s Over: Washington’s Premier Social Connector Fades From View”

-- JIM COURTOVICH posted this bit from the story on his Instagram feed: “Mr. Courtovich wasn’t accused of wrongdoing in these issues. And each time, he bounced back.”

RYAN HEATH: “Overseas diplomats brace for four more years of Trump”: “POLITICO spoke to more than a dozen European diplomats and State Department officials about the potential for a second Trump term. And whereas none would go on the report, for worry of drawing White Home ire, they have been unanimous in their prediction that four extra years of Trump would symbolize a notch up on the Richter scale, making the previous few years of instability really feel like a mild tremor as compared.” POLITICO

BECAUSE IT’S NEVER TOO EARLY … POLITICO MAGAZINE’S BILL SCHER: “Who’s Winning 2024?”

AUSTRALIAN INFERNO UPDATE … SYDNEY MORNING HERALD: “Excessive circumstances threaten to push main hearth fronts into extra heavily populated elements of [New South Wales] on Saturday, together with elements of outer Sydney, amid warnings that the bushfires might move ‘frighteningly fast’ as a result of excessive winds and soaring temperatures.

“With 11 deaths from the bushfires in NSW and Victoria since Monday, tens of hundreds of people made a last try to flee devastated areas ahead of the worsening circumstances on Saturday.” SMH

-- CAPITAL WEATHER GANG: “Amid bush fire crisis, this weekend may bring Australia its most dangerous weather for blazes”

IMMIGRATION FILES -- “U.S. Begins Returning Asylum Seekers at Arizona Border to Mexico,” by WSJ’s Michelle Hackman and Alicia Caldwell: “U.S. Customs and Border Safety for the first time Thursday started turning round migrants in search of asylum in Arizona and sending them to Nogales, Mexico, to await U.S. courtroom hearings that they now will need to get to on their own.

“The move expands the controversial Migrant Protection Protocols or ‘Stay in Mexico’ program, which the U.S. adopted a yr in the past to cope with a surge of Central American migrants at the southern border. Immigrant and human-rights advocates have criticized the coverage for successfully requiring migrants to reside in harmful Mexican border cities, typically for months, the place the U.S. warns its personal residents to keep away from touring.” WSJ

ICYMI -- “Exclusive: Unredacted Ukraine Paperwork Reveal Extent of Pentagon’s Authorized Considerations,” by Just Security’s Kate Brannen (a POLITICO alum): “Final month, a courtroom ordered the authorities to launch virtually 300 pages of emails to the Middle for Public Integrity in response to a FOIA lawsuit. It launched a primary batch on Dec. 12, after which a second installment on Dec. 20, including [OMB official Michael] Duffey’s e-mail, but that doc, together with several others, have been partially or utterly blacked out.

“Since then, Just Security has seen unredacted copies of these emails, which start in June and finish in early October. Together, they inform the behind-the-scenes story of the defense and price range officials who needed to carry out the president’s unexplained hold on army assist to Ukraine.

“The paperwork reveal growing concern from Pentagon officers that the maintain would violate the Impoundment Control Act, which requires the chief branch to spend cash as appropriated by Congress, and that the required steps to avoid this outcome weren’t being taken. Those steps would come with notifying Congress that the funding was being held or shifted elsewhere, a step that was never taken. The emails also present that no rationale was ever given for why the hold was put in place or why it was ultimately lifted.

“What is obvious is that it all got here right down to the president and what he needed; no one else seems to have supported his position.” Just Security

MEDIAWATCH -- “BuzzFeed Edges Nearer to Profitability After Robust Yr,” by WSJ’s Lukas Alpert: “BuzzFeed has spent the previous 12 months working to stabilize itself after a tumultuous start to 2019 by which it was pressured to put off 250 individuals after posting a loss the prior yr that folks accustomed to the matter stated was higher than $50 million.

“The onetime digital-media darling is edging closer to profitability because of employees cuts and efforts in recent times to generate new income streams, comparable to launching its personal line of kitchenware and investing in a sequence of stores selling quirky toys.” WSJ

-- PAGE SIX’S EMILY SMITH: “Stephanie Ruhle has been promoted to senior enterprise correspondent for NBC News and will seem throughout their flagship exhibits together with ‘At the moment’ and ‘NBC Nightly News,’ Page Six has solely discovered.” Page Six

-- ABC’S @jonkarl: “This can be a huge deal — At this yr’s @whca Dinner we can be awarding the brand new $25,000 Collier Prize for State Authorities Accountability to the perfect statehouse reporting. Deadline: January 31.” More

-- Jessica Taylor is joining the Prepare dinner Political Report as Senate and governors editor, taking up the position from Jennifer Duffy. Taylor presently is a political reporter for NPR. Announcement … Renuka Rayasam is now a Texas policy and politics reporter for POLITICO. She previously was a health care reporter for POLITICO. … Jessica Meyers is becoming a member of International Press Journal as news director. She previously was Asia correspondent for the L.A. Occasions, based mostly in Beijing, and is a Boston Globe and POLITICO alum. …

… Manori Ravindran might be worldwide editor at Variety, based mostly in London. She beforehand was editor of Tv Business Worldwide. Variety … Boris Kachka shall be books editor on the L.A. Occasions. He presently is books editor at New York journal.

TV TONIGHT -- Bob Costa sits down with NYT’s Michael Crowley, PBS NewsHour’s Lisa Desjardins, WaPo’s Toluse Olorunnipa and USA At the moment’s Susan Web page at eight p.m. on PBS’ “Washington Week.”

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

SPOTTED: Kellyanne Conway on a Southwest flight from Ft. Lauderdale to BWI on Thursday. Pic

TRANSITIONS -- Lindsey Kolb is now director of digital engagement at DDC Public Affairs. She beforehand was digital director at the Schooling Department. … Ed Bedrosian will rejoin Orrick to steer its gaming regulatory follow. He is presently government director of the Massachusetts Gaming Fee. … Martha Spieker is now press secretary for Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii). She was most lately press secretary for Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.).

ENGAGED -- Chris Ortman, SVP and chief spokesperson on the Movement Picture Affiliation, proposed to Tomoko Takai, an assistant producer for Warner Bros., at a family gathering in Denver on Christmas Eve. They met in school at Xavier University and reconnected in Los Angeles. Pic

-- Scott Garfing, a lawyer at Covington and Burling, proposed to Danielle Paquette, WaPo’s West Africa bureau chief, in entrance of the Lincoln Memorial. They met at the Passenger in Shaw. Pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Christian Robinson of the Specialty Gear Market Association and Molly Robinson of Youngsters’s Nationwide Hospital welcomed Lyle Pierce Robinson on Wednesday.

BIRTHWEEK (was Thursday): Fox Business Network’s Elizabeth MacDonald … Ben Sheffner (h/t Tim Burger) … Anna Lee, senior director of selling for Morning Consult (h/t Olivia Petersen) … Alice M. Greenwald

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Brad Parscale, campaign manager for the Trump reelect, is 44. A enjoyable reality about him: “I've only gone on one job interview in my life, at Clarke American. They turned me down for not enough net expertise. Due to that I started my very own company.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) is 46 … Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) is 49 … Greta Thunberg is 17 … Daniel Fisher of the White Home … WaPo’s David Fahrenthold (h/t Annie Lewis) … former Treasury Secretary W. Michael Blumenthal is 94 … “Chef” Geoff Tracy is 47 ... Betty Rollin is 84 ... Marcie Ridgway Kinzel ... David Margolick is 68 ... Noam Levey, nationwide health care reporter for the L.A. Occasions’ D.C. bureau ... Jenna Golden, founder and president of Golden Strategies … Thomas Walton-Cale ... L.D. Platt, VP for exterior affairs communications at UnitedHealth Group ... Neal Zuckerman of Boston Consulting Group ... POLITICO’s Matt Woelfel and Maggie Chan ...

… Al Cardenas, senior companion at Squire Patton Boggs … Tony Chauveaux … Richard Ben-Veniste is 77 … Erik Larson … POLITICO Europe’s Laura Kayali ... BBC's Justin Webb is 59 … Michele Soresi ... Tim Rieser … Zach Gates of Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R-Mo.) office … Chris DeBosier, VP of federal government affairs for Verizon … NYT’s Marc Tracy … Melanie Garunay, director of content material and artistic for Elizabeth Warren’s campaign … Sarah Lenti ... Carolyn Fiddler, communications director at Day by day Kos ... Joe Lenoff ... Romina Boccia ... Igor Volsky, founder and government director of Guns Down America, is 34 ... McKinsey’s Jonathan Spaner … James Hunter ... Taylor Bolton

Article initially revealed on POLITICO Magazine

Src: POLITICO Playbook: Trump just made his most consequential decision as president
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