POLITICO Playbook: We know how the impeachment show ends, but we’re still watching

THE HOUSE’S IMPEACHMENT OF PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP IS KIND OF LIKE WATCHING the most recent season of “Jack Ryan” on Amazon Prime Video. Positive, the twists and turns are thrilling. You already know the dude goes to get chased, shot at or stabbed -- and do all of it in exotic locales. Every episode makes you sweat as Jack will get into one pickle or one other. In the long run, though, you additionally know the showrunners in all probability gained’t kill him off.

IMPEACHMENT IS KIND OF SIMILAR. Sure, the hearings these subsequent two weeks are momentous and historic. They may highlight simply how unusual this White Home is: The president’s personal lawyer was operating around the globe making an attempt to get a overseas country to examine a political rival, and the U.S. authorities was dangling conferences and cash as enticements. We’ll hear from longtime overseas servants, a army official and White Home insiders, all of whom have the identical view of this administration’s conduct: improper, immoral and wrong-headed.

BUT, AT THE END OF THE DAY, all of us have a reasonably good concept how this film is going to end: an almost party-line vote, with most every Democrat voting to question the president, and almost all Republicans voting towards it. But in the middle -- the subsequent 9 days -- you’ll get nonstop, white-knuckle action.

-- TODAY: Bill Taylor and George Kent. FRIDAY: Marie Yovanovitch. NEXT WEEK’S WITNESSES: Tuesday: Pence aide Jennifer Williams … Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman … Kurt Volker … Timothy Morrison. Wednesday: Gordon Sondland … Laura Cooper … David Hale. Thursday: Fiona Hill. More from Kyle Cheney and Andrew Desiderio

TAKE IT A STEP FURTHER: Is it unattainable to check 20 Republicans in the Senate voting to take away TRUMP? No, however it appears near unattainable to check it when GOP lawmakers like Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) are telling BURGESS EVERETT and MARIANNE LEVINE that he gained’t even watch the proceedings because they're a “political sideshow” and Sen. DAVID PERDUE (R-Ga.) says “nothing rises to the level of impeachment.” Burgess and Marianne’s story

TODAY BEGINS WHAT MANY ARE DESCRIBING as an impeachment course of that would stretch to 3 months. That’s a very long time. Will the public be swayed by Democrats’ arguments? Or will it tire of the process? POLITICO/Morning Consult poll: “Most voters remain unmovable in impeachment views,” via Steve Shepard

A FEW THINGS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON …

-- HOUSE REPUBLICANS -- especially a number of the lawmakers on this committee -- generally tend to dive down rabbit holes. Learn the transcripts and see how typically they end up speaking about the Steele file, or other ancillary issues. Will they continue that, or will they stay narrowly targeted on the problems at hand? Will DEVIN NUNES comply with ADAM SCHIFF’S lead, and permit his employees counsel to take the lead in questioning? Will they flail around, or stay tightly targeted on what Republicans contemplate their handiest line so far: How was this a quid professional quo if Ukraine acquired the money without issuing a press release about investigating the Bidens?

-- HOUSE DEMOCRATS have, to date, carried out this hearing in personal, however the transcripts show a precise, lawyerly demeanor. With the cameras now rolling, will Democrats have the power to hold at bay their extreme distaste for the president, and allow the principally nonpartisan witnesses to hold the day?

-- ONE OF THE DEMOCRATS’ self-described challenges is articulating exactly what TRUMP did that was so mistaken. Rep. JIM HIMES (D-Conn.) recommended they stop calling it a quid pro quo, as a result of, put merely, the Latin phrase was arduous to understand. Will Democrats have the ability to explain what they see as an extortion plot by the president to wreck a political rival? Heather Caygle, Sarah Ferris and John Bresnahan on the message

-- REPUBLICANS have spent a lot of the final month or so railing on Democrats for what they view as process fouls. Now that the hearings are public -- and will probably be coated wall to wall by network and cable television -- will they shift technique, or stand pat? Will they try to discredit the witnesses personally, or will they search to discredit their arguments?

INTERESTING POINT … ONE QUESTION we acquired Tuesday is why neither aspect referred to as any of the Ukrainian players to testify.

THE TIMELINE THAT’S RATTLING AROUND (that is all topic to vary, and is just the mind-share of some senior aides and lawmakers) …

-- HOUSE INTEL will spend the subsequent two weeks -- this and subsequent week -- in public hearings.

-- THEN CONGRESS is out for Thanksgiving. Action appears unlikely -- though not unattainable -- that week.

-- CONGRESS returns Dec. three. For the two weeks after that -- week of Dec. 2 and week of Dec. 9 -- we anticipate HOUSE JUDICIARY to have some motion within the impeachment realm.

-- THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO seems to be a Home impeachment vote the week of Dec. 16 -- the identical week government funding expires.

… WHAT CAN GO WRONG?

AP’S JONATHAN LEMIRE in New York: “Trump to face limits of his power in impeachment hearings”: “For three years, Donald Trump has unapologetically defied the conventions of the American presidency. … Now a parade of profession public servants will increase their palms and swear an oath to the fact, not the presidency, representing an integral a part of the system of checks and balances envisioned by the Founding Fathers.”

NANCY COOK notes that TONY SAYEGH, the previous Treasury official who has been rehired to run point on impeachment communications, was on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, meeting with aides about messaging as Democrats search to take away TRUMP from office. More from Nancy and Gabby Orr on the White House’s impeachment power matrix

JOHN HARRIS’ ALTITUDE COLUMN: “What Impeachment Will Cost the GOP”: “The typical appraisal of Trump’s prospects—the Home will doubtless convict, the Senate will possible acquit and Trump will declare vindication—may nicely be true. But this glosses over a larger level: On the current trajectory, Republicans are partaking in a battle with their own long-term prices that they will be paying for the subsequent era.

“Based mostly on Clinton’s precedent, those costs will probably be paid towards Trump’s agenda—issues he needs to do however gained’t achieve because of the distorting results of impeachment on his political choices and room for maneuver.

“They will be paid by his associates—individuals whose reputations and ambitions might be permanently dented because of their proximity to him. And they are going to be paid by conservatives who comply with him—who will discover their very own rules have lost credibility and energy within the public thoughts due to their connection to Trump.”

RYAN LIZZA: “The impeachment calculus Democrats don't want to talk about”: “The degree to which the Democrats in Congress who're operating the impeachment inquiry are disconnected from their colleagues operating for president cannot be overstated. Impeachment and the presidential main are like two planets slowly pulled together by gravity which might be finally about to collide -- no one seems to know who will survive impression.”

BRIEFLY NOTED … UKRAINIAN BILLIONAIRE IHOR KOLOMOISKY to Anton Troianovski of the NYT in Kyiv: “‘They’re stronger anyway. We've got to enhance our relationships,’ he stated, comparing Russia’s energy to that of Ukraine. ‘Individuals need peace, a great life, they don’t need to be at conflict. And also you’ — America — ‘are forcing us to be at warfare, and never even giving us the money for it.’” NYT

Good Wednesday morning.

JARED’S GOT IT! … WAPO: “White House to make use of webcams to create reside feed of border wall development,” by Nick Miroff: “Jared Kushner and different senior Trump administration officers are planning to set up net cameras to live-stream development of President Trump’s border wall, going towards objections from the U.S. Military Corps of Engineers and senior U.S. Customs and Border Safety officials, in response to four individuals accustomed to the White Home proposal.

“‘There will probably be a wall cam, and it’ll launch early next yr,’ stated a senior White House official concerned in the initiative, which goals to rally public help for tons of of miles of latest border barrier Trump needs in place by next yr’s election.

“The venture, which already has value $10 billion in taxpayer funds, is not on time and faces major hurdles, including the need to acquire miles of privately held land in Texas the place limitations are slated to be built.

“Kushner floated the thought throughout conferences in July, half of a messaging effort to push again towards criticism that Trump has did not deliver on the signature proposal of his 2016 marketing campaign. The Army Corps and CBP have informed Kushner that development contractors don't need their proprietary methods visible to rivals, in line with 4 people who spoke on the situation of anonymity to describe the interior discussions.” WaPo

ON TRUMP’S AGENDA TODAY: ERDOĞAN … “Trump, Erdogan to meet as thorny issues stress relations,” by AP’s Deb Reichmann: “Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Donald Trump will meet as relations between the two NATO allies are at their lowest level in many years, with Turkey rebuffing the U.S. and turning toward Russia on security issues and Ankara dealing with a Washington backlash over assaults on Kurdish civilians during its incursion into Syria final month.

“Erdogan and Trump have a troublesome agenda Wednesday that includes Turkey’s determination to purchase a Russian air defense system and its attack on U.S.-allied Kurdish forces in northern Syria. Their scheduled afternoon information convention, nevertheless, will give Trump a stage to counter the primary public hearings within the Home impeachment inquiry.” AP

-- WAPO: “Trump gives trade deal, sanctions workaround to Erdogan for higher U.S.-Turkey relations,” by Karen DeYoung, Missy Ryan and Kareem Fahim: “President Trump has provided Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on account of go to the White House on Wednesday, a package deal of inducements for higher U.S.-Turkey relations that's nearly similar to those the administration proposed final month in a failed effort to stop Turkey’s invasion of Syria.

“In a new letter to Erdogan last week, Trump advised the Turkish president that a $100 billion commerce deal, and a workaround to avoid U.S. sanctions over Turkey’s buy of Russia’s S-400 missile protection system, are still attainable, senior administration officials stated. The supply is more likely to infuriate at least a few of the overwhelming House majority that voted last month to impose sanctions on Turkey over its assault into Syria, and a bipartisan group of senators who launched an identical invoice.” WaPo

ABOUT THAT WHISTLEBLOWER REPORT … “Trump Has Thought-about Firing Intelligence Group Inspector Common,” by NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Mike Schmidt: “President Trump has mentioned dismissing the intelligence group’s inspector basic, Michael Atkinson, because Mr. Atkinson reported a whistle-blower’s grievance about Mr. Trump’s interactions with Ukraine to Congress after concluding it was credible, in response to 4 individuals conversant in the discussions.

“Mr. Trump first expressed his dismay about Mr. Atkinson around the time the whistle-blower’s grievance turned public in September. In current weeks, he has continued to increase with aides the potential of firing him, one of the individuals stated.” NYT

MULVANEY ON THE BRINK? -- “Aides are counseling Trump not to fireside Mulvaney, as appearing chief of employees modifications course once more,” by WaPo’s Carol Leonnig, Tom Hamburger, Josh Dawsey and John Hudson: “President Trump has been threatening for weeks to fireside appearing chief of employees Mick Mulvaney, but senior advisers have endorsed him to carry off on such a drastic step amid a high-stakes impeachment probe, in line with three individuals familiar with the discussions. ...

“Senior advisers have cautioned Trump that eradicating Mulvaney at such a delicate time could possibly be perilous, the individuals stated — both as a result of Mulvaney played an integral position in the determination to freeze the aid, and due to the disruption that can be brought on by replacing certainly one of Trump’s most senior aides.” WaPo

-- WAPO: “At donor dinner, Giuliani associate stated he discussed Ukraine with Trump, based on individuals accustomed to his account,” by Rosalind Helderman, Matt Zapotosky, Tom Hamburger and Josh Dawsey: “Lev Parnas, has described to associates that he and his enterprise associate, Igor Fruman, informed Trump on the dinner that they thought the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine was unfriendly to the president and his pursuits.

“In accordance with Parnas, the president reacted strongly to the news: Trump instantly instructed that then-Ambassador Marie ­Yovanovitch, who had been within the Overseas Service for 32 years and served underneath Democratic and Republican presidents, must be fired, individuals conversant in his account stated. Parnas declined to remark. Todd Blanche, a lawyer for Fruman, declined to remark. The White House did not respond to a request for remark.

“Parnas’s account of personally discussing Ukraine with Trump more than 18 months ago means that he and Fruman had more personal interplay with the president — and probably extra affect over his views on that country — than the White Home has acknowledged.” WaPo

2020 WATCH …

-- NYT’S ALEX BURNS and JONATHAN MARTIN: “Why Bloomberg and Deval Patrick Changed Their Minds About 2020”: “Both males have concluded in current weeks that Mr. Biden, the former vice chairman, is just not the imposing adversary that they had anticipated him to be, interviews with aides and allies present. Each additionally consider there's room in the race for a extra dynamic candidate who's closer to the political center than Mr. Biden’s two most outstanding challengers, Ms. Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders.

“Ought to Mr. Bloomberg and Mr. Patrick enter the race, they might check that proposition in several methods: Mr. Bloomberg with a powerfully funded marketing campaign that may tackle President Trump instantly and contest the most important states on the first map from the start; Mr. Patrick with an insurgent candidacy that might start in next-door New Hampshire and run via South Carolina, where black voters are more likely to determine the primary.” NYT

-- MARC CAPUTO and DAVID SIDERS: “Michael Bloomberg, Deval Patrick blindside Dem main area”: “The center of the Democratic Celebration is throwing a match. The get together’s average wing has out of the blue produced back-to-back threats of Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick getting into the presidential main, revealing its willpower to have an imposing presence in a race formed by unrestrained liberal coverage prescriptions and candidates.

“The two potential candidates are expressions of the deep concern voiced by Democratic Social gathering insiders and donors that the average frontrunner within the race, Joe Biden, is flawed and in hazard of dropping to a progressive various, Sen. Elizabeth Warren. At a naked minimum, Bloomberg and Patrick stand to complicate — and probably lengthen — the marketing campaign.” POLITICO

TRUMP’S WEDNESDAY -- The president and first woman Melania Trump will participate in the arrival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his spouse Emine Erdoğan at midday on the South Portico. Afterward, the 4 of them will meet within the Oval Workplace. Trump and Erdoğan will participate in a bilateral meeting at 12:30 p.m. in the Oval Office followed by an expanded working lunch in the Cabinet Room.

At 2 p.m., Trump will meet with senators within the Oval Office. WAPO’S SEUNG MIN KIM notes in a tweet that the meeting will even embrace Erdoğan. At three:10 p.m., Trump will participate in a joint press convention with Erdoğan in the East Room. The Trumps will bid farewell to Erdoğan and his spouse at three:45 p.m. within the Diplomatic Reception Room.

NO SURPRISE HERE -- “Google’s ‘Venture Nightingale’ Triggers Federal Inquiry,” by WSJ’s Rob Copeland and Sarah Needleman: “Google’s venture with the country’s second-largest well being system to collect detailed health info on 50 million American sufferers sparked a federal inquiry and criticism from patients and lawmakers.

“The info on patients of St. Louis-based Ascension have been till lately scattered throughout 40 knowledge facilities in more than a dozen states. Google and the Catholic nonprofit are shifting that knowledge into Google’s cloud-computing system—with probably huge modifications on tap for docs and patients.

“At challenge for regulators and lawmakers who expressed concern is whether or not Google and Ascension are adequately defending affected person knowledge in the initiative, which is code-named ‘Undertaking Nightingale’ and is aimed toward crunching knowledge to supply better health care, amongst different objectives. Ascension, with out notifying patients or docs, has begun sharing with Google personally identifiable info on tens of millions of patients, akin to names and dates of delivery; lab exams; doctor diagnoses; treatment and hospitalization historical past; and some billing claims and different medical data.” WSJ

KNOWING JOHN SOLOMON -- “The Man Trump Trusts for News on Ukraine,” by NYT’s Jeremy Peters and Ken Vogel

TOP-ED … RUDY GIULIANI in the WSJ: “The Case for the Impeachment Defense”: “Mr. Trump requested that Ukraine root out corruption; he didn’t demand it. His phrases have been cordial, agreeable and freed from any aspect of menace or coercion. Mr. Trump provided nothing in return to Ukraine for cleaning up corruption. If you doubt me, read the transcript. Allegations of Burisma-Biden corruption weren’t even a serious a part of the dialog. The focus was on Ukrainian corruption broadly speaking and out of a five-page transcript Mr. Trump spent solely six strains on Joe Biden.” WSJ

-- BILL TAYLOR, considered one of right now’s impeachment witnesses, revealed an op-ed of his personal in a Ukrainian newspaper this week. It accommodates this eyebrow-raising line: “As in all democracies, together with america, work stays in Ukraine, especially to strengthen rule of regulation and to carry accountable those who attempt to subvert Ukraine's buildings to serve their personal aims, somewhat than the nation's pursuits.”

2020 MOVES -- “Trump marketing campaign staffs-up press staff as public impeachment hearings set to start,” by ABC’s Will Steakin and Rachel Scott: “The strikes embrace the marketing campaign elevating Erin Perrine to principal deputy communications director after initially becoming a member of back in April as deputy communications director. Perrine, a Capitol Hill veteran, moved over to the campaign after most just lately serving as nationwide press secretary for Home Republican Chief Kevin McCarthy of California. …

“Ali Pardo can also be joining the campaign as deputy director of communications for press. Like Perrine, Pardo joins with years of Capitol Hill experience together with serving because the National Press Secretary for the House Republican Convention beneath Chairwoman Liz Cheney.” ABC

MEDIAWATCH -- “Politico’s Founder Is Launching a Tech Website—Into a Very Crowded Market,” by Vainness Truthful’s Joe Pompeo: ‘Now he needs to duplicate Politico’s playbook, as it have been, with Protocol, which he will officially announce this week. The digital-only enterprise plans to raise off with roughly the same degree of manpower and investment as its predecessor did greater than a decade in the past: a number of dozen journalists and enterprise staff and a little more than $10 million beneath the hood. ‘I might love for this to be as huge as, if not larger than, Politico is true now,’ [Robert] Allbritton advised me.” Vanity Fair … Protocol.com … Launch staff

-- WAPO’S SARAH ELLISON: “Fox News host Tucker Carlson is loudly ignoring impeachment. It ‘is not only dumb, it’s boring’”

-- CNN’S BRIAN STELTER: “Anonymous anti-Trump e-book is already successful and it’s not on shelves until subsequent week”: “Whereas the ebook will not be out for an additional week, the Twelve imprint at Hachette Guide Group says ‘A Warning’ has ‘garnered more pre-orders than another nonfiction ebook at any..

Src: POLITICO Playbook: We know how the impeachment show ends, but we’re still watching
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