POLITICO Playbook: Trump’s GOP walloped

WHERE WE ARE ... DEMOCRATS captured management of the Virginia Home of Delegates and state Senate, the primary time they’ve controlled the complete authorities “in a era,” per the WaPo.

-- NYT’S JONATHAN MARTIN: “For the primary time since 1993, Democrats control each chambers within the legislature and the governor’s office -- permitting them to redraw the state’s legislative boundaries after subsequent yr’s census.

“Linking Republican incumbents to the unpopular president and criticizing them for opposing gun management measures in the aftermath of a mass capturing in Virginia Seashore in Might, Democratic challengers constructed their victory with robust showings in suburbs stretching from outdoors Washington to Richmond and Hampton Roads. In Fairfax County, the state’s largest jurisdiction, the last remaining Republican lawmaker was defeated.” NYT

DEMOCRATS APPEAR TO HAVE TOPPLED the unpopular sitting Republican governor of Kentucky at some point after a go to from President DONALD TRUMP. Democrat ANDY BESHEAR leads Republican Gov. MATT BEVIN by more than 5,000 votes, in line with Steve Shepard, who is in Lexington for us. POLITICO

REPUBLICANS, THOUGH, had success throughout the remainder of the state. Senate Majority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL’S former authorized counsel, Daniel Cameron, was elected lawyer basic -- the first black individual to be elected to that office. Lexington Herald-Leader

PENNSYLVANIA -- a state key to TRUMP’S re-election prospects -- is popping towards Democrats in a historic trend.

-- PHILLY INQUIRER: “The blue wave crashed down on Pennsylvania once more, as voters from Philly to Delaware County turned left,” by Julia Terruso: “The political forces that shaped final yr’s midterm elections showed no indicators of abating Tuesday, as voters turned on Republicans and institution Democrats alike in races from Philadelphia and Scranton to the suburbs of Delaware and Chester Counties. …

“Regionally, Democrats will hold all five seats on the Delaware County Council, a Republican stronghold because the Civil Warfare, and in addition assumed a majority on the legislative body in Chester County. In Bucks County, Democrats additionally held a late lead for management of the board of commissioners in an in depth race.” Inquirer

HOW DOES THIS ALL affect TRUMP’S political fortunes? Do Republicans take a look at Tuesday night time’s electoral outcomes and rethink whether or not they need to keep on with the president on impeachment? (For probably the most half, we doubt Rs will ditch Trump.) Will it have an effect on Trump’s 2020 campaign strategy or his governing posture? Will the president look, in any means, to try to associate with Democrats on something common, or will he proceed his present posture, which is he’s being impeached for doing nothing improper, and there’s nothing really the two events can work on?

THERE ARE TWO WAYS FOR REPUBLICANS TO LOOK AT TUESDAY NIGHT. A method: We gained the Mississippi governor race, we gained virtually all the slate of races in Kentucky and Bevin misplaced as a result of he was unpopular. All of that’s true -- however simply part of the story. The other means to take a look at it is: Pennsylvania is slipping away, Virginia is gone and Kentucky -- a state TRUMP gained by almost 30 factors in 2016 -- has elected a Democrat in a race the place impeachment was middle stage.

HERE’S HOW TRUMP CAST the Kentucky race in his rally for Bevin earlier this week: “In the event you win, they're going to make it like, ho hum. And should you lose, they will say Trump suffered the best defeat in the history of the world. You can’t let that occur to me!”

-- AND HERE’S WHAT HE SAID TUESDAY NIGHT: @realDonaldTrump at 11:37 p.m.: “#ElectionNight Gained 5 out of 6 elections in Kentucky, together with 5 great candidates that I spoke for and launched final night time. @MattBevin picked up no less than 15 factors in last days, but perhaps not enough (Pretend News will blame Trump!). Profitable in Mississippi Governor race!”

… at 11:51 p.m.: “Congratulations to @tatereeves on profitable Governor of the Nice State of Mississippi. Our huge Rally on Friday night time moved the numbers from a tie to an enormous WIN. Nice reaction beneath strain Tate!”

FWIW: TRUMP gained Mississippi by 17 points in 2016.

THE STEP BACK … WAPO’S BOB COSTA: “[T]he Kentucky defeat has sparked concern among the many celebration’s donors and lots of longtime GOP leaders who are apprehensive that the nonstop twists of the House impeachment inquiry and Trump’s rising fury are making it more and more troublesome for Republicans to make a transparent and compelling case to voters.” WaPo

-- AP’S STEVE PEOPLES in New York: “It’s troublesome to attract sweeping conclusions from state elections, every with their own unique quirks and personalities. But there’s little doubt Tuesday’s consequence is a warning to Republicans throughout the nation a yr out from the 2020 election and a yr after the 2018 midterms: The suburbs are still shifting in the incorrect course.” AP

AND YET … NEW POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL: “Ballot: Majority expects Trump to win in 2020,” by Caitlin Oprysko: “With less than a yr to go before the 2020 election, a majority of registered voters say they assume it’s a minimum of considerably probably that President Donald Trump will safe a second term in the White House, a new ballot has discovered, with virtually a third of voters saying the president will probably be prime of mind when casting their vote subsequent November.

“In response to a POLITICO/Morning Consult survey released on Wednesday, 56 % of voters anticipate the president to be reelected next yr, including 85 % of Republicans and 51 % of independents. By comparability, more than a third of Democrats (35 %) say the identical.” POLITICO

Good Wednesday morning.

IMPEACHMENT … IN THE EARLY DAYS OF POLITICO, our co-founders John Harris and Jim VandeHei typically asked us to try to report as if we have been putting our sources on fact serum. What would they say if they couldn’t lie?

SO AFTER TUESDAY’S BOMBSHELL transcript release -- GORDON SONDLAND and KURT VOLKER -- we buzzed our prime House Republican sources and challenged them to tell us what they have been truly interested by TRUMP’S standing in the mean time.

-- THEY UNDERSTAND TRUMP IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. “With no doubt,” one House Republican informed us, that is the most important political pickle TRUMP has been in. That’s why Republicans are taking the extremely unusual step of putting Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) on the Intelligence Committee to defend the president: He wants reinforcements, and quick. (We hear it can just be Jordan that gets a slot on that panel.)

-- THEIR STRATEGY IS TO OBFUSCATE. Republicans understand that they “have a troublesome set of details,” as one informed us, they usually are going to try to muddy the waters and distract from the clearly troubling testimony delivered by each witness Democrats have referred to as. Look ahead to small-ball solutions making an attempt to select apart the credibility of sure witnesses on the subject of whether or not they extrapolated or had firsthand info on what they have been testifying about.

-- THEY’RE READY TO THROW SONDLAND UNDER THE BUS. This was, maybe, probably the most shocking to us. Typical knowledge held that SONDLAND was going to be the strongest ally for TRUMP -- a donor whose $1 million to the Trump inaugural fund should have made him a loyal figure. But Republicans are starting to turn on him. Lawmakers we spoke with referred to as him a lackey, a chest-thumper and a rube. In fact, perhaps that’s as a result of he turned on the president. However there isn't any love misplaced for Sondland at all.

-- THEY STILL, TO THIS DAY, QUESTION THE QUID PRO QUO. The cornerstone of Republicans’ protection of TRUMP is that, despite testimony indicating in any other case, there isn't a actual evidence of a quid professional quo. There's speak that the president needed to carry up assist in trade for a press release laying out an investigation into the BIDEN household. However, as several lawmakers advised us, the aid was restored without the statement.

WE ASKED OUR SOURCES this easy query: If TRUMP is so involved about corruption, can you point to other places on the planet the place he’s withheld help in trade for cleansing up authorities, or was the Biden example distinctive? Nobody can, however individuals point out that he often has threatened to cut off assist.

-- THE PUBLIC WITNESS THE GOP FEARS: Invoice Taylor is the unanimous No. 1.

HEAR NO EVIL, SAY NO EVIL … SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM, by way of CBS: “I’ve written the whole course of off … I feel this can be a bunch of B.S.” Marianne LeVine on Graham

INTERESTING TEXT … TAYLOR in a textual content to VOLKER in Might, presumably after he was asked to go to Kyiv: “I’m really fighting the decision whether or not to go [to Ukraine]. Can anybody hope to succeed with the Giuliani-Biden situation swirling for the subsequent 18 months? Can [Mike Pompeo] supply any reassurance on this problem”

HAPPENING TODAY … AP’S MATTHEW LEE: “AP sources: State Dept. apprehensive about defending ambassador”: “The State Department’s third-ranking official is predicted to inform Congress that political issues have been behind the agency’s refusal to ship a strong protection of the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

“Individuals acquainted with the matter say the highest-ranking career diplomat in the overseas service, David Hale, plans to inform congressional impeachment investigators on Wednesday that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and different senior officers decided that defending Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch would harm the trouble to unencumber U.S. army assistance to Ukraine.

“Hale will even say that the State Division apprehensive concerning the reaction from Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, also one of many strongest advocates for eradicating the ambassador. … Hale is predicted to shed extra mild on why the State Division did not step up to defend its prime envoy in Kyiv. Based on the individuals conversant in the matter, he'll say he tried to distance himself and the division from the matter by removing himself from e-mail chains about Yovanovitch.” AP

SMART STORY … WAPO’S ROBERT BARNES and SEUNG MIN KIM: “Senate impeachment trial to test chief justice who has tangled with Trump”: “The trial can be an unfamiliar second in the spotlight for Roberts, 64, whose evocation of the decide as impartial umpire drew praise at his 2005 confirmation hearing. His nomination by President George W. Bush capped off a profession as a Republican operative within the White Home, a lawyer with many appearances before the Supreme Courtroom and an appellate decide.

“Trump’s impeachment proceedings can be the primary trial over which Roberts has ever presided. It offers the potential for a confrontation with a president who has already antagonized him, even because the chief justice has tried to distance himself and the courtroom from partisan politics.

“‘I feel [the chief justice] is going to be very uncomfortable with it,’ stated Carter G. Phillips, a longtime Washington lawyer who is among the most prolific practitioners earlier than the Supreme Courtroom. ‘He'll look the part and will act the half, however I’m positive he’d fairly not have the part.’” WaPo

JUICY … VANITY FAIR’S JOE POMPEO: “The Mask Will Probably Fall’: In a Warning, New Trump Scandals -- And Clues to the Identity of Anonymous”

TRUMP’S WEDNESDAY -- The president will give a speech on federal judicial confirmation milestones at 3 p.m. within the East Room. Trump will depart the White Home at four:10 p.m. en route to Monroe, La., where he'll deliver remarks at a marketing campaign rally at 7 p.m. Central time on the Monroe Civic Middle. Afterward, he will return to Washington.

THE LATEST ON ROGER STONE, by way of Darren Samuelsohn and Josh Gerstein: “Day 2 of the Roger Stone trial begins at 9:30 a.m. with extra jury choice. Decide Amy Berman Jackson obtained the pool of individuals right down to 34 by the top of the day Tuesday -- and she or he expects to get it across the end line to start out at the moment. Then it’ll be time for opening arguments from DOJ and Stone’s attorneys.

“Wanting ahead to listening to the Stone opener in specific as they really haven’t articulated in public what his protection can be on the trial. DOJ prosecutors stated they might be carried out with their aspect of the case by the middle of subsequent week. Stone’s legal professionals have stated they’d need three to four days.” More on how Stone’s gag order has effectively kept Stone silent

WILD TALE FROM BEN SCHRECKINGER -- “‘Slightly help from the vice chairman’: How Joe Biden, his youthful brother Frank, a lobbyist and an oil heiress obtained Congress to ban the slaughter of horses for meat.” POLITICO

MUCK READ -- “How Mike Pence’s Workplace Meddled in Overseas Help to Reroute Money to Favored Christian Groups,” by ProPublica’s Yeganeh Torbati: “Officers at USAID warned that favoring Christian teams in Iraq could possibly be unconstitutional and inflame spiritual tensions. When one colleague lost her job, they stated she had been ‘Penced.’” ProPublica

HEADS UP -- “Trump OKs wider Syria oil mission, elevating authorized questions,” by AP’s Lolita Baldor: “President Donald Trump has accredited an expanded army mission to safe an expanse of oil fields throughout japanese Syria, raising a variety of troublesome legal questions about whether or not U.S. troops can launch strikes towards Syrian, Russian or different forces in the event that they threaten the oil, U.S. officials stated.

“The decision, coming after a gathering Friday between Trump and his defense leaders, locks lots of of U.S. troops into a extra difficult presence in Syria, regardless of the president’s vow to get America out of the warfare. Beneath the brand new plan, troops would shield a big swath of land managed by Syrian Kurdish fighters that stretches almost 90 miles (150 kilometers) from Deir el-Zour to al-Hassakeh, but its actual measurement continues to be being decided.

“Officers stated many particulars still should be worked out. But, Trump’s determination arms commanders a victory in their push to stay within the country to stop any resurgence of the Islamic State group, counter Iran and companion with the Kurds, who battled IS alongside the U.S. for several years. However it also forces legal professionals within the Pentagon to craft orders for the troops that might see them firing on Syrian government or Russian fighters making an attempt to take back oil amenities that sit inside the sovereign nation of Syria.” AP

HAPPENING TODAY -- “In Main Nuclear Step, Iran to Resume Enrichment at Underground Website,” by WSJ’s Laurence Norman in Brussels and Aresu Eqbali in Tehran: “Iran plans to start out enriching uranium at an underground facility Wednesday, Tehran officers stated, in a big step away from its commitments underneath the 2015 nuclear deal that would increase strain on Europe to take action.

“A 15-year ban on any enrichment of uranium on the Fordow nuclear plant was one of many central achievements of the deal. Enriched uranium can be used as gasoline for a nuclear weapon.

“The location, buried deep within a mountain, is taken into account impregnable to most typical weapons, presenting a serious hurdle to any army effort aimed toward stopping Iran from constructing a nuclear weapon. Iran says its nuclear program has all the time been for peaceful purposes. The newest step is probably the most dramatic yet by Iran away from the 2015 accord.” WSJ

VALLEY TALK -- “Considerations about Facebook’s political advert policy delivered to Zuckerberg’s dinner desk,” by CNN’s Brian Fung: “Steak, scallops and the future of American democracy have been among the many gadgets on the menu at considered one of Mark Zuckerberg’s houses on Monday night time as the Fb CEO hosted a dinner for American civil rights leaders.

“Flanked by Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg and Facebook exec Nick Clegg, Zuckerberg met face-to-face at his Bay Space house with a few of the firm's most ardent critics to hear their considerations about how the corporate tackles hate speech and its policy of not fact-checking advertisements from politicians.

“Civil rights representatives agreed not to disclose specifics of what the Facebook executives and different attendees stated at the meeting, Farhana Khera, the chief director of Muslim Advocates, who attended the dinner, advised CNN. But a number of them raised considerations about Fb's coverage of allowing politicians to run false advertisements, stated Khera and Vanita Gupta, the CEO of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, who also was in attendance.” CNN

MEDIAWATCH -- MICHAEL CALDERONE: “Media retailers reject Rand Paul’s demand that they determine Trump’s whistleblower”: “Main news organizations have not recognized the whistleblower whose claims about Trump pressuring Ukraine to research the Bidens have been largely corroborated and even expanded upon by officials testifying within the impeachment inquiry — they usually’re not buckling to demands from Trump and his allies to show the individual.” POLITICO

-- DEAN BAQUET to WaPo’s Paul Farhi: “I’m not convinced his id is essential at this level, or at the very least necessary enough to place him at any danger, or to unmask somebody who doesn’t need to be identified. Pretty much the whole lot has now been discussed or confirmed on the document, multiple occasions, by others within the administration. So I’m unsure I see the point of unmasking someone who needs to stay anonymous.” WaPo

-- NPR’S DAVID FOLKENFLIK: “ABC News Defends Its Epstein Coverage After Leaked Video Of Anchor”

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

TRANSITIONS -- Giovanna Gray Lockhart is now chief technique officer at The Riveter. She was most just lately at The Wing and is a Kirsten Gillibrand alum. … Josh Hurvitz is now a companion at authorities relations firm NVG. He beforehand was VP for public coverage at Time Warner and WarnerMedia.

SPOTTED at a screening Tuesday night time on the Nationwide Archives of “Created Equal,” a documentary about Justice Clarence Thomas: Justice Samuel Alito and Martha-Ann Alito, D.C. Circuit Courtroom Decide Neomi Rao, Leonard Leo, Carrie and Roger Severino, Rachel Semmel, Hugo Gurdon, Kevin Daley, Emily Jashinsky, Byron York, Greg Mueller, Keith Appell and Ryan Lovelace.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Ruth Messinger, international ambassador for the American Jewish World Service, is 79. How she thinks the Trump presidency goes: “I worry that the U.S. is dropping our position as a human rights leader, especially for the populations that American Jewish World Service works alongside. The shortage of a considerate response from our State Division to virtually any human rights problem, the constant threats to overseas assist and to immigrant populations -- all are damaging our standing on the earth.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Rep. John Carter (R-Texas) is 78 … Arne Duncan, managing companion of Emerson Collective and former Schooling secretary, is 55 (hat tip: Devon Spurgeon) … Sidney Blumenthal is 71 … Dan Senor is 48 … Eric Schulze … Rob Jesmer, associate at FP1 Strategies and PLUS Communications … POLITICO’s Louis Nelson is 31 … Marlon Bateman is 31 … Social Security Administration Commissioner Andrew Saul is 73 … former Rep. Dan Donovan (R-N.Y.) is 63 … Andrew Snow … Ana Estes … Katie Rosborough … American Pink Cross’ Eric Mondero … Alison Patch of APCO Worldwide … Bob Grand … Ashley Lewis, press secretary for Senate Banking Committee Democrats … Rachel Weiss, director of external affairs at UnitedHealth Group (h/t husband Adam) … Julia Bennett …

… Whitney Mitchell Brennan, communications director for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) ... Blair Gremillion, senior media analyst at America Rising, is 27 (h/t Christian Martinez) … Alan Dechert … Arun Chaudhary, artistic director at Revolution Messaging, is 44 … Catherine Crier is 65 … Mychal Denzel Smith … Matt Kirk ... JoJo Sears ... Rick Nussio … Sheila Walter … Scott Anderson … LaCreda Drummond-Mondon … Ramesh de Silva ... Ian Braun … NPR’s Eric Deggans ... USCIS’ Diana Banister ... Keaton Bedell ... Christopher Joshua Arndt ... Ben Wrobel ... Julia Moseley … Gray Brooks … NBC’s Gresham Striegel … ABC’s Trish Turner … CNBC’s Angelica LaVito … Chris Fitzgerald … Andrew Weinberg … Suzanne Granville (h/t Teresa Vilmain) … Ira Fishman (h/t Jon Haber)

Article initially revealed on POLITICO Magazine

Src: POLITICO Playbook: Trump’s GOP walloped
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